Hudson Labs Research · Prediction Scorecard · Assessed as of July 16, 2026
Elon Musk: The Prediction Scorecard
151 public predictions about TSLA made
between February 2019 and May 2026 — from earnings calls, tweets, unveilings and interviews — each judged
against its own stated deadline. What came true, what didn't, and where the hit rate is highest.
The verdict on Elon Musk's predictions
All 151 predictions by outcome. "Resolved" = the deadline has passed and the outcome is judged (came true, qualified, partly, or missed).
What Musk makes predictions about
Share of all 151 predictions by topic — and how each topic's resolved predictions actually scored.
Resolved predictions only; open (unresolved / not-yet-due) predictions are excluded from each topic's bar. Hit rate = came true + qualified true.
Where Musk's predictions land — and where they don't
Resolved predictions grouped by where the statement was made, sorted by hit rate.
The horizon effect in Musk's predictions
Hit rate by how far away the promised deadline was when the prediction was made.