Exelixis (EXEL) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
- Q2 2026 consensus revenue is $633M, up +9% YoY from Q2 2025 actuals ($579.9M).
- Guidance for FY 2026 is $2.525B–$2.625B in total revenue and $2.325B–$2.425B in net product revenue, unchanged as of the latest update.
- Q2 2025 was a strong comp: +16% YoY revenue growth, driven by both RCC and the first full quarter of NET launch.
- Growth drivers to watch: Continued market share gains in RCC, ramp in NET, and early launch preparations for zanzalintinib (zanza) in CRC.
- Operating leverage and capital allocation: Ongoing aggressive share repurchases ($750M program nearly complete; new $750M program authorized for 2027).
- Pipeline catalysts: Multiple pivotal readouts expected in 2H 2026 (STELLAR-303 NLM OS, STELLAR-304 topline), plus continued expansion of zanza pivotal programs.
Most Important Factors to Watch This Quarter
| Factor | Why It Matters | What to Watch For |
|---|---|---|
| RCC Franchise Growth | RCC remains the core business; continued share gains and duration drive top-line | Market share in first-line and second-line RCC, TRx/NPS trends, duration of therapy |
| NET Launch Trajectory | NET is the key incremental growth driver; $100M+ in 2025, but runway remains | Community uptake, new patient starts, refill stacking, market share in 2nd-line+ oral segment |
| Zanza Launch Preparation | CRC launch expected late 2026; commercial readiness and prescriber education are critical | GI sales force buildout, overlap with existing prescribers, messaging on chemo-free/IO regimens |
| Guidance Reaffirmation | Street expects $2.6B FY revenue; any change would be material | Any update to FY 2026 guidance, especially if NET or RCC outperforms/underperforms |
| Margin Trends | Operating leverage is a focus; SG&A and R&D discipline support buybacks | Cost of goods sold %, R&D and SG&A spend, gross/net margin trends |
| Capital Allocation | Buybacks are a key part of the story; signals confidence and undervaluation | Pace of buybacks, cash balance, commentary on BD/M&A vs. capital returns |
| Pipeline Progress | Multiple pivotal readouts in 2H 2026; derisking future growth | Timing and tone on STELLAR-303 NLM OS, STELLAR-304 topline, STELLAR-316 initiation |
Quarterly Financials — Actuals and Consensus
Quarterly Revenue and EPS Trend
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | EPS (GAAP) | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026E | 633 | +9% | 0.78* | Consensus estimate | |
| Q1 2026 | 611 | +10% | 0.79 | +44% | Reported actual |
| Q4 2025 | 599 | +6% | 0.88 | +83% | Reported actual |
| Q3 2025 | 598 | +11% | 0.69 | +73% | Reported actual |
| Q2 2025 | 580 | +16% | 0.56 | +54% | Reported actual |
| Q1 2025 | 555 | +11% | 0.55 | +34% | Reported actual |
*Consensus EPS for Q2 2026 is $0.78 (rounded from consensus data).
Full-Year Revenue and EPS Guidance
| Fiscal Year | Revenue Guidance ($M) | Net Product Revenue Guidance ($M) | Consensus Revenue ($M) | EPS (GAAP) Consensus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2,525–2,625 | 2,325–2,425 | 2,601 | 3.18 | Guidance excludes potential zanza CRC launch revenue |
| 2025 | 2,320 (actual) | 2,123 (actual) | 2,320 | 2.65 | Actuals |
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q2 2025)
- Q2 2025 revenue: $579.9M (+16% YoY)
- Q2 2025 GAAP EPS: $0.56 (+54% YoY)
- Key drivers: Strong RCC franchise growth, first full quarter of NET launch (contributed ~$20M, ~4% of CABO revenue), robust demand and market share gains in both RCC and NET.
- Gross margin: ~96%
- Operating leverage: R&D and SG&A well controlled; significant free cash flow enabled $796M in share repurchases YTD by Q2 2025.
- Comp: Q2 2025 was a strong quarter, with high growth rates due to both base business and new NET indication.
Are They Coming Off a Tough Y/Y Comparable?
Yes. Q2 2025 was a high-growth quarter (+16% YoY revenue, +54% YoY EPS), driven by:
- Strong RCC market share gains and duration- First full quarter of NET launch, which contributed a meaningful incremental revenue boost- Operating leverage from disciplined expense management Q2 2026 consensus implies +9% YoY revenue growth — a deceleration vs. the prior year, but still healthy given the tough comp and the maturing base business.
Management Commentary and Intra-Quarter Color
- RCC: Management continues to highlight strong momentum in first-line and second-line RCC, with CABOMETYX maintaining #1 TKI status and ongoing share gains. Highest ever new patient starts and first-line market share in Q1 2026.
- NET: NET launch described as "very strong," with broad uptake across academic and community settings. Management sees "plenty of room to grow," especially in the community, and has expanded the GI sales force to accelerate penetration.
- Zanza CRC Launch: Commercial team is "in full launch preparation" for a potential late-2026 launch. Messaging focuses on the chemo-free, IO-containing regimen and robust survival benefit in a fragmented third-line CRC market (~$1.5B TAM, 23,000 patients).
- Guidance: FY 2026 guidance reaffirmed in Q1; management expects both RCC and NET to drive growth. Guidance does not include any potential zanza CRC launch revenue.
- Capital Allocation: Aggressive buybacks continue; $750M program nearly complete, new $750M program authorized for 2027. Management continues to see shares as undervalued, especially given underappreciated zanza pipeline value.
- Pipeline: Multiple pivotal readouts expected in 2H 2026 (STELLAR-303 NLM OS, STELLAR-304 topline). Management emphasizes the breadth of the zanza pivotal program (7+ studies) and the goal of establishing zanza as the TKI of choice in the 2030s.
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 will be measured against a very strong Q2 2025 comp (+16% YoY revenue, NET launch tailwind). Consensus expects +9% YoY growth, a moderation but still solid.
- Key focus areas: Continued RCC share gains, NET ramp (especially in the community), and commercial readiness for zanza CRC launch.
- Guidance is unchanged and sets a high bar; any revision (up or down) would be notable.
- Operating leverage and capital returns remain central to the story, with ongoing buybacks and disciplined expense management.
- Pipeline catalysts in 2H 2026 (notably STELLAR-303 NLM OS and STELLAR-304 topline) could drive sentiment and derisk future growth.
- Watch for: Any signs of slowing in RCC or NET, updates on zanza launch timing/preparedness, and commentary on competitive dynamics in RCC (HIF-2, len/belz, etc.).
Appendix: Quarterly Revenue and EPS Actuals
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 611 | 0.79 |
| Q4 2025 | 599 | 0.88 |
| Q3 2025 | 598 | 0.69 |
| Q2 2025 | 580 | 0.56 |
| Q1 2025 | 555 | 0.55 |
Guidance Table — FY 2026
| Metric | Guidance Range ($M) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 2,525–2,625 | Excludes potential zanza CRC launch |
| Net Product Revenue | 2,325–2,425 | Includes 3% price increase for CABOMETYX/COMETRIQ |
| Cost of Goods Sold (%) | 3.5–4.5% | As % of net product revenue |
| R&D Expense | 875–925 | Includes $50M stock-based comp |
| SG&A Expense | 575–625 | Includes $75M stock-based comp |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21–23% |
In summary: Exelixis enters Q2 2026 earnings with strong momentum in both RCC and NET, but faces a tough YoY comp. The Street expects continued growth, but at a more moderate pace. Execution on NET ramp, RCC share gains, and zanza CRC launch readiness are the most important factors to watch. Guidance is unchanged and sets a high bar. Multiple pivotal pipeline readouts in 2H 2026 could be significant catalysts.
