AbbVie (ABBV) — Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
| Theme | Details |
|---|---|
| Consensus Expectations | Q3 2026 revenue consensus: $17,307M; EPS consensus: $2.39 (GAAP) |
| Guidance | FY 2026 revenue guidance raised to $67,600M (as of Q2 call); Q3 revenue guidance: $17,200M |
| Recent Performance | Q2 2026 revenue: $16,976M (+10.2% YoY); Adjusted EPS: $3.65; strong double-digit growth in Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and neuroscience |
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| Comparables | Q3 2025 revenue: $15,586M; Q3 2025 adjusted EPS: $1.86 |
| YoY Comp | Q3 2026 faces a relatively easy comp (+11% YoY consensus growth expected) |
Most Important Factors to Watch This Quarter
| Factor | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Skyrizi & Rinvoq Growth | Both are core to AbbVie’s immunology franchise; consensus expects >20% YoY growth to continue |
| Neuroscience Outperformance | Segment is now a key pillar (Vraylar, migraine, Parkinson’s); watch for continued double-digit growth |
| Skyrizi Subcu Induction Approval | FDA decision expected in Q4, but any update on timing or launch plans will be closely watched |
| Apogee Therapeutics Integration | Progress on closing and pipeline prioritization; clarity on Zumi (zumilokibart) Phase III timelines |
| HS Readouts (Lutikizumab, Rinvoq) | Data expected in 2H26; could set up new growth drivers in underpenetrated dermatology market |
| Oncology Pipeline Updates | Temab-A, etentamig, and other ADCs/TCEs are potential long-term growth drivers; IMS/ASCO data flow |
| Margin Expansion | Operating leverage as revenue grows; consensus expects op margin near 47% for FY26 |
| Pricing/Access Dynamics | Immunology pricing remains “low single-digit” headwind; payer negotiations for 2027 underway |
| Guidance Revisions | Management has raised FY guidance twice YTD; further upward revisions would be a positive signal |
Recent Results and Forward Consensus
Quarterly Financials (Actuals and Consensus)
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Adj. EPS | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 16,976 | +10.2% | 3.65 | +13.2% | Beat by $300M vs. guidance |
| Q1 2026 | 15,000 | +12.4% | 2.65 | +10.4% | Beat by $300M vs. guidance |
| Q4 2025 | 16,415 | +10.0% | 2.71 | +8.0% | |
| Q3 2025 | 15,586 | +8.4% | 1.86 | +5.7% | |
| Q3 2026E | 17,307 | +11.0% | 2.39 | +28.5% | Consensus (GAAP EPS) |
| Q4 2026E | 18,319 | +11.6% | 2.96 | +23.8% | Consensus (GAAP EPS) |
Note: Adjusted EPS figures are from company guidance and transcripts; consensus EPS is GAAP.
Full-Year Guidance and Consensus
| Metric | FY 2026 Guidance (Q2) | FY 2026 Consensus | FY 2025 Actual | YoY Growth (Guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 67,600 | 67,600 | 61,200 | +10.5% |
| Adj. EPS | 13.87–14.07 | 10.00 | +39% at midpoint | |
| Op Margin (%) | ~47% | 41% | +600 bps |
Segment Trends and KPIs
| Segment | Q2 2026 Sales ($M) | YoY Growth | Key Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immunology | 8,800 | +14.6% | Skyrizi $5.5B (+24%), Rinvoq $2.5B (+23.7%) |
| Neuroscience | 3,200 | +20% | Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, Ubrelvy, Qulipta, Vyalev |
| Oncology | 1,600 | -2.4% | Venclexta up, Imbruvica down, new launches ongoing |
| Aesthetics | 1,300 | -0.9% | Botox Cosmetic up, Juvederm down |
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q3 2025)
| Metric | Q3 2025 Actual | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 15,586 | +8.4% | Beat expectations by ~$300M |
| Adj. EPS | 1.86 | +5.7% | $0.10 above guidance midpoint |
| Skyrizi Sales | 4,700 | +46% | Strong IBD/psoriasis growth |
| Rinvoq Sales | 2,200 | +34% | Gastro/RA/derm momentum |
| Neuroscience | 2,800 | +19.6% | Migraine, Vraylar, Vyalev outperforming |
| Oncology | 1,700 | Flat | Imbruvica down, new launches offsetting |
| Aesthetics | 1,200 | -4.2% | Market softness, especially fillers |
Comp: Q3 2025 was a strong quarter with high single-digit growth, but Q3 2026 consensus implies an acceleration to +11% YoY, so the comp is not unusually tough.
Guidance and Management Commentary
Latest Guidance (as of Q2 2026)
| Metric | FY 2026 Guidance (Q2) | Q3 2026 Guidance | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 67,600 | 17,200 | Raised $300M in Q2; up $600M YTD |
| Adj. EPS | 13.87–14.07 | 3.84–3.88 | Includes $0.14 dilution from Apogee deal |
| Skyrizi Sales ($M) | 21,700 | Raised $100M in Q2 | |
| Neuroscience Sales | 12,700 | Raised $100M in Q2 | |
| Op Margin (%) | ~47% | ~50% (Q3) | Margin expansion continues |
| R&D Expense ($M) | 9,800 | Up $100M for Apogee pipeline investments | |
| Net Interest Expense | 2,900 | Up $200M for Apogee financing | |
| Tax Rate (%) | 14.5 |
Management Commentary — Key Themes
- Immunology: Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue to outperform, with robust capture rates and share gains. Subcutaneous induction for Skyrizi in Crohn’s is expected to be a significant catalyst.
- Neuroscience: Now a top-tier growth driver; Parkinson’s (Vyalev, tavapadon), migraine, and psychiatry all delivering strong results.
- Oncology: Etentamig (BCMA TCE) and Temab-A (ADC) are highlighted as underappreciated assets with upcoming pivotal data.
- Aesthetics: Market remains soft, especially in fillers, but new product launches (Boey) and innovation are expected to support long-term growth.
- Pipeline: Apogee acquisition adds late-stage and mid-stage immunology/respiratory assets; focus on rapid integration and pipeline prioritization.
- Margins: Operating leverage expected to continue as revenue grows faster than expenses.
- Pricing: Immunology pricing headwinds remain “low single digits”; payer negotiations for 2027 are ongoing but consistent with prior years.
Summary and Conclusions
- AbbVie enters Q3 2026 earnings with strong momentum: Double-digit revenue and EPS growth, multiple guidance raises YTD, and continued outperformance in immunology and neuroscience.
- Key focus areas for the print: Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth sustainability, neuroscience outperformance, progress on Skyrizi subcu induction approval, Apogee pipeline integration, and pivotal HS/oncology readouts.
- YoY comp is not unusually tough: Q3 2025 was a strong quarter, but consensus expects an acceleration in growth, reflecting confidence in the current portfolio.
- Guidance risk appears to the upside: Management has consistently raised guidance throughout 2026; further upward revisions or positive commentary on pipeline catalysts would be well received.
- Margin expansion and capital allocation: Operating leverage is a tailwind; Apogee deal is not expected to constrain further BD or dividend growth.
Bottom Line: The most important factors for Q3 2026 are continued robust growth in Skyrizi/Rinvoq and neuroscience, updates on key pipeline catalysts (especially Skyrizi subcu, HS, oncology, Apogee), and any further upward revisions to guidance. The company is coming off a strong Q3 2025 but faces a manageable comp given the current momentum and portfolio strength.
