S&P Global (SPGI) — Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q3 2026
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Consensus expects Q3 2026 revenue of $3,635M (-5% YoY, but note Mobility spin). Guidance for FY26 is 5.9%-7.9% revenue growth (ex-Mobility), with organic constant currency growth of 6%-8%. Q2 2026 pro forma revenue grew +11% YoY. |
| Segment Performance | Ratings and Indices are the main profit drivers (now >80% of operating profit). Ratings revenue up +17% YoY in Q2; Indices up +20%. Energy and Market Intelligence both guided to 4.5%-6% and 5.5%-7% growth, respectively. Watch for continued strength in Ratings/Indices and any improvement in Energy. |
| Margins | Q2 2026 pro forma adjusted operating margin was 54.3% (+200 bps YoY). FY26 guidance: 35-60 bps margin expansion (ex-OSTTRA: 75-100 bps). MI margin expansion is a focus given ongoing productivity/AI initiatives. |
| AI Monetization & Adoption | Rapid adoption of Kensho LLM-ready APIs and MCP connectors (now >500 clients, +70% QoQ). API call volume up 5x QoQ. ACV growth among AI customers in MI is now 60% faster than non-AI customers. Look for further commentary on monetization, pricing models, and client uptake. |
| Capital Returns | S&P now expects >$7B in share repurchases for 2026 (over 5% of market cap), up from prior targets, following the Mobility spin and $2B dividend from Mobility. |
| Private Markets | Private markets revenue base was ~$600M in 2025, with Ratings private credit revenue up +60% YoY in Q2. Monitor for continued momentum and new product launches (indices, data sets, partnerships). |
| Energy Division | Q2 Energy revenue up only +3% YoY, pressured by Middle East conflict, sanctions, and event volatility. Guidance for Energy is unchanged at 4.5%-6% for FY26, but management expects normalization to 6%-8% growth in 2027. Watch for signs of stabilization or further headwinds. |
| Market Intelligence (MI) Realignment | MI now split into Kensho Data & Platforms (high single-digit to low double-digit growth) and Enterprise Solutions (10% organic growth). Platforms (Cap IQ, Visible Alpha, With Intelligence) growing low single digits. Watch for updates on portfolio optimization, margin expansion, and any divestitures. |
Recent Results and Year-over-Year Comparables
Quarterly Financials (Pro Forma, Ex-Mobility)
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Adj. Op. Margin | Adj. EPS | YoY EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 3,678 | +11% | 54.3% | $4.83 | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | 3,719* | 51.8% | $4.97 | +14% | |
| Q2 2025 | 3,317 | 52.3% | $3.92 |
*Q1 2026 pro forma revenue not explicitly stated post-spin; Q1 reported was $4,171M including Mobility.
Segment Revenue Growth (Q2 2026, Pro Forma)
| Segment | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Adj. Op. Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratings | 1,339 | +17% | 68% |
| Indices | 534 | +20% | 72% |
| Energy (adj.) | 623 | +3% | 48% |
| Market Intelligence (adj.) | 1,235 | +6% | 36% |
Guidance Summary (as of Q2 2026)
| Metric | FY 2026 Guidance (Ex-Mobility) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.9%–7.9% | Organic constant currency: 6%–8% |
| Adj. Operating Margin Expansion | 35–60 bps | Ex-OSTTRA: 75–100 bps |
| Adj. EPS | $17.50–$17.75 | Double-digit growth YoY |
| Segment Revenue Growth | Ratings: 5%–8%; Indices: 12%–14%; MI: 5.5%–7%; Energy: 4.5%–6% | Ratings/Indices guidance raised in Q2; MI/Energy unchanged |
| Share Repurchases | >$7B | Up from prior target, includes $2B Mobility dividend |
| Free Cash Flow (Adj.) | $2.9B–$3.1B (H2 2026, ex-Mobility) | H1 2026 (incl. Mobility): $2.4B |
How Did They Report Last Year? Are Comps Tough?
- Q3 2025 (pro forma, ex-Mobility): Revenue was $3,825M (consensus), with strong growth in Ratings and Indices.
- Q3 2026 consensus: $3,635M, which appears lower due to the Mobility spin. On a like-for-like basis, comps are tough for Ratings and Indices, as Q3/Q4 2025 saw very strong issuance and equity market performance.
- Management has flagged that Q3 and Q4 2026 will face tougher YoY compares, especially in Ratings, due to the pattern of issuance in 2025 (low Q2/high Q3-Q4 last year).
Intra-Quarter and Management Commentary
- AI Monetization: Management continues to highlight rapid adoption of AI solutions, with strong ACV and retention uplift among AI customers. Monetization is described as "multifaceted," with a mix of consumption-based and value-based pricing. Management expects revenue to follow usage and value creation, with some lag as enterprise renewals catch up.
- MI Portfolio Optimization: Management is focused on simplifying MI, consolidating platforms, and prioritizing high-growth, high-margin products. Subscale or underperforming products (consulting, sustainability) may be divested if growth does not return.
- Energy Headwinds: The Energy division is expected to reaccelerate to 6%-8% growth in 2027 as geopolitical headwinds abate and the upstream software divestiture improves mix.
- Capital Allocation: S&P is prioritizing organic investment and productivity-driven margin expansion, with bolt-on M&A only in unique, high-IP areas. No transformational M&A appetite.
- Buybacks: Share repurchase target raised to >$7B for 2026, reflecting strong FCF and proceeds from the Mobility spin.
Summary and Conclusions
- Expectations for Q3 2026: Investors will focus on whether S&P can sustain high-single-digit organic revenue growth and margin expansion, particularly in Ratings and Indices, against tough YoY comps. MI's ability to accelerate growth and expand margins through AI/productivity gains and portfolio optimization will be scrutinized.
- AI remains a key differentiator, with rapid customer adoption and early signs of successful monetization, but investors will look for more evidence of revenue impact and pricing power.
- Energy is a watch area for stabilization and signs of a return to trend growth.
- Capital returns are a tailwind with an aggressive buyback program underway.
- Comps are challenging in the back half, especially for Ratings and Indices, but management has set expectations accordingly and continues to guide to solid full-year growth and margin expansion.
Tables and figures reflect latest restated/pro forma numbers as of Q2 2026, excluding Mobility.
