BBVA Earnings Preview — Q3 2026
Key Points
- Consensus expects continued strong growth: Q3 2026 consensus calls for revenue of $11,920M (+12% YoY) and net income of $3,232M (+11% YoY), with EPS at $0.59.
- Guidance upgraded intra-quarter: Management raised 2026 group ROTE guidance to ~21% (from ~20%) and upgraded Mexico loan growth, NII, and cost of risk guidance after Q2.
- Comparables are tough but momentum is strong: Q3 2025 was a record quarter for BBVA, with net income of $2,901M and revenue of $10,621M. Q3 2026 faces a high base but consensus expects double-digit growth.
- Most important factors to watch:
- Loan growth and NII trajectory in Spain and Mexico
- Customer spread stabilization or improvement
- Cost discipline and efficiency ratio progress
- Asset quality, especially cost of risk in Turkey and Mexico
- Execution on capital return (buybacks, CET1 trajectory)
- Early signals of AI-driven productivity/efficiency gains
Forward Consensus and Guidance Summary
| Metric | Q3 2026E Consensus | Q3 2025 Actual | YoY Change | FY 2026E Consensus | FY 2025 Actual | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 11,920 | 10,621 | +12% | 47,835 | 42,857 | +12% |
| Net Income ($M) | 3,232 | 2,901 | +11% | 12,925 | 11,732 | +10% |
| EPS ($) | 0.59 | 0.51 | +16% | 2.32 | 2.06 | +13% |
| Gross Profit Margin % | 5.96 | 3.21 | 3.98 |
Source: Company consensus data, actuals from reported figures.
Most Important Factors for Q3 2026
| Factor | What to Watch For | Context / Recent Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Loan Growth | Continued double-digit YoY growth, especially in Mexico and Spain | Q2: Group loans +17.7% YoY; Spain +7.4%, Mexico ~10%. Guidance for Mexico loan growth upgraded to ~10%. |
| Net Interest Income (NII) | High single-digit to low double-digit YoY growth; stabilization/improvement in customer spreads | Q2: NII Spain +4.5% YoY, Mexico +8.9% YoY. Guidance: Mexico NII high single digit, Spain low-mid single digit. |
| Customer Spreads | Signs of bottoming out and potential improvement, especially in Spain | Q2: Spain customer spread up 3bps QoQ; management expects improvement in coming quarters if rates stable. |
| Cost Discipline/Efficiency | Underlying cost growth vs. revenue growth; efficiency ratio below 35% target | Q2: Group efficiency ratio 37.8% (ex-one-offs: 36.0%). Spain underlying cost growth +5% YoY. |
| Asset Quality | Cost of risk trends, especially in Turkey (guidance raised to 220bps) and Mexico (guidance <335bps) | Q2: Group CoR 143bps, Turkey CoR 236bps (guidance raised), Mexico CoR 326bps (guidance improved). |
| Capital Returns | Pace of buybacks, CET1 ratio trajectory, further extraordinary distributions | Q2: CET1 12.90% pre-buyback; new €2B buyback announced, commitment to distribute all capital >12%. |
| AI/Tech Productivity | Early evidence of AI-driven efficiency, cost savings, or revenue uplift | Strategic talks: AI agents deployed, 75% of employees using AI, early productivity gains cited. |
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q3 2025)
| Metric | Q3 2025 Actual | YoY Change vs. Q3 2024 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 10,621 | +2% | Record quarter, strong loan growth, NII +7.1% QoQ in constant euros |
| Net Income ($M) | 2,901 | +7% | Slightly below Q2 due to one-offs, FX headwinds, but still robust |
| EPS ($) | 0.51 | +6% | |
| Gross Profit Margin % | 5.96 | +269 bps | |
| Loan Growth | +16% YoY | +16% | Spain +7.8%, Mexico +9.8% YoY |
| NII Growth | +18% YoY | +18% | Fees +15% YoY |
| Efficiency Ratio | 38.2% | Improved YoY | |
| Cost of Risk (Group) | 135bps | Better than guidance | |
| CET1 Ratio | 13.42% | +8bps QoQ | Guidance for positive regulatory impact in Q4 |
Q3 2025 was a very strong quarter, with double-digit loan and NII growth, improved efficiency, and asset quality better than guidance.
Are They Coming Off a Tough Comparable?
Yes. Q3 2025 was a record quarter for BBVA, with strong loan growth (+16% YoY), NII growth (+18% YoY), and net income up +7% YoY. The base is high, but consensus expects BBVA to deliver another double-digit YoY increase in both revenue and net income in Q3 2026.
Intra-Quarter Developments and Management Commentary
Upgraded Guidance After Q2 2026
- Group ROTE: Upgraded to ~21% for 2026 (from ~20%), reflecting strong H1 performance.
- Mexico: Loan growth guidance raised to ~10% (from high single digit); NII guidance to high single digit; cost of risk guidance improved to <335bps.
- South America: Gross revenue growth guidance raised to high teens.
- Turkey: Cost of risk guidance increased to 220bps (from 200bps) due to slower normalization in retail portfolios.
- Capital Returns: Announced new €2B buyback (first tranche €1B starting August 5), reiterating commitment to distribute all CET1 above 12%.
Strategic Priorities and AI
- AI Transformation: Over 100,000 employees actively using AI tools; early productivity gains (e.g., 30% reduction in time for financial program generation, 80% reduction in claims processing time).
- Efficiency: Underlying cost growth in Spain +5% YoY; group efficiency ratio ex-one-offs at 36.0%; target remains <35% mid-term.
- Competitive Position: Management continues to highlight scale, digital leadership, and capital discipline as key differentiators.
Summary and Conclusions
- BBVA enters Q3 2026 earnings with strong momentum, having delivered record H1 results, upgraded guidance, and ongoing capital returns.
- Key focus areas for the upcoming print: sustaining double-digit loan/NII growth, customer spread stabilization/improvement, cost control and efficiency, asset quality (especially in Turkey and Mexico), and execution on buybacks.
- Comparables are tough but consensus expects another robust quarter, with double-digit YoY growth in both revenue and net income.
- Management has flagged upside risk to Mexico activity and NII, while Turkey remains a watchpoint due to macro headwinds and higher cost of risk.
- AI and technology investments are beginning to show early productivity benefits, but investors will look for more tangible impacts on cost/income and operating leverage.
- Capital return remains a central part of the equity story, with a clear commitment to distribute all CET1 above 12% via buybacks and dividends.
Upcoming Catalysts
- Q3 2026 Earnings Release: Watch for confirmation of upgraded guidance, especially in Mexico and South America.
- Further Buyback Announcements: Potential for additional extraordinary distributions if CET1 remains above 12%.
- AI/Tech Strategic Update: Next BBVA Strategic Talks (October 2026) may provide more detail on AI-driven transformation and efficiency targets.
- Macro Developments: USMCA negotiations, rate environment in Mexico and Europe, and inflation/interest rate trajectory in Turkey.
In summary: BBVA is expected to deliver another strong quarter, with the market focused on sustaining growth, margin stabilization, cost discipline, asset quality, and capital returns. The bar is high given last year's record Q3, but upgraded guidance and intra-quarter commentary suggest confidence in continued outperformance.
