BBVA Earnings Preview — Q2 2026
Key Points
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Consensus Q2 2026 Net Income | $3,321M (rounded, per consensus) |
| Consensus Q2 2026 Revenue | $11,827M (rounded, per consensus) |
| Guidance Focus | Mid/high single-digit NII growth in Mexico and Spain; group RoTE ~20%+; cost-to-income <40% |
| Y/Y Comparable | Q2 2025 net income: $2,714M; revenue: $10,386M — strong y/y comp (+22% net income, +14% revenue expected) |
| Key Watch Areas | Loan growth momentum (especially in Mexico and Spain), NII resilience, deposit cost trends, cost discipline, asset quality (cost of risk), capital returns (buybacks/dividends), Turkey macro impact |
| Intra-Quarter Tone | Management remains confident on activity growth, positive bias to Mexico loan growth, cautious on Turkey, reiterates RoTE and capital return targets |
Summary and Conclusions
- BBVA is coming off a strong Q2 2025, with net income of $2,714M and revenue of $10,386M. Consensus expects Q2 2026 net income of $3,321M (+22% YoY) and revenue of $11,827M (+14% YoY).
- Guidance and intra-quarter commentary signal continued strong loan growth, especially in Mexico (potential upside to high single-digit guidance) and Spain (mid-single-digit).
- NII growth is expected to be mid- to high single digits in both core markets, with some margin compression but stabilizing spreads as rates bottom out.
- Cost discipline remains a focus, with group cost-to-income targeted below 40% for FY26, and Spain at ~33–34%.
- Asset quality is stable; cost of risk in Mexico guided at 340 bps, with no signs of deterioration in credit cards.
- Capital returns are a key theme: BBVA is executing a €4B buyback, with further distributions expected as CET1 is well above the 12% target.
- Turkey remains a swing factor; guidance now carries a negative bias due to higher inflation and rates, but the franchise is resilient.
- Management upgraded group RoTE guidance for 2026 to above 20%, with a continuous improvement path toward the 22% midterm target.
Most Important Factors to Watch This Quarter
| Factor | What to Watch / Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Loan Growth | Is Mexico delivering double-digit loan growth? Is Spain sustaining mid-single-digit growth? |
| Net Interest Income (NII) | Does NII growth match or exceed mid/high single-digit guidance? Are spreads stabilizing as rates bottom out? |
| Deposit Costs | Is BBVA maintaining its cost advantage in Mexico? Any signs of rising competition or mix shift in Spain/Mexico? |
| Cost Discipline | Are costs growing in line with guidance (Spain: 3–4% ex-one-offs)? Is group cost-to-income trending <40%? |
| Asset Quality | Is cost of risk in Mexico holding at/below 340 bps? Any early warning in credit cards or other retail books? |
| Capital Returns | Progress on €4B buyback; any signals on further extraordinary distributions as CET1 remains above 12%? |
| Turkey Performance | Is Turkey tracking to the revised (downward-biased) guidance? Macro headwinds manageable? |
| Fee Income & CIB | Is fee growth (esp. from CIB, payments, insurance, asset management) supporting revenue diversification? |
Recent Actuals vs. Consensus — Quarterly
BBVA Quarterly Results and Consensus ($M)
| Quarter | Revenue (Actual) | Net Income (Actual) | Revenue (Consensus) | Net Income (Consensus) | EPS (Consensus) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 11,431 | 3,062 | 11,431 | 3,062 | 0.55 |
| Q2 2026E | 11,827 | 3,321 | 0.59 | ||
| Q2 2025 | 10,386 | 2,714 | |||
| Q1 2025 | 9,700 | 2,544 |
Note: Q2 2026 actuals not yet reported; consensus shown for preview.
Full-Year Actuals and Consensus ($M)
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (Actual) | Net Income (Actual) | Revenue (Consensus) | Net Income (Consensus) | EPS (Consensus) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42,857 | 11,732 | 42,857 | 11,732 | 2.06 |
| 2026E | 47,713 | 12,643 | 2.30 | ||
| 2024 | 36,163 | 9,872 |
Guidance and Management Commentary
FY2026 Guidance (as of Q1 2026 and recent conferences)
| Metric | Guidance / Commentary |
|---|---|
| Group RoTE | Upgraded to "above 20%" for 2026; midterm target remains 22% average (2025–2028) |
| NII Growth (Mexico) | Mid- to high single-digit; positive bias to loan growth, NII to track slightly below loan growth due to spread |
| NII Growth (Spain) | Low- to mid-single-digit; activity growth to feed into NII, spreads stable to slightly lower |
| Loan Growth (Mexico) | High single-digit to double-digit; Q1 2026 saw 8.4% YoY, >10% ex-FX; positive bias to guidance |
| Loan Growth (Spain) | Mid-single-digit; Q1 2026 saw 6.3% YoY; focus on consumer, SME, enterprise; selective in mortgages |
| Cost-to-Income Ratio | Group: below 40% for 2026; Spain: ~33–34%; midterm group target 35% by 2028 |
| Cost Growth (Spain) | 3–4% ex-one-offs; Q1 2026 restructuring charge already included in guidance |
| Cost of Risk (Mexico) | 340 bps for 2026; Q1 2026 at 345 bps, stable; no deterioration in credit cards |
| Capital Returns | €4B buyback ongoing (third tranche in Q2 2026); commitment to distribute all CET1 above 12% |
| Turkey | Negative bias to prior €1B profit guidance for 2026; macro headwinds (inflation, rates) |
| Fee Income | Continued focus on CIB, payments, insurance, asset management; positive fee growth expected |
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q2 2025)
- Q2 2025 Net Income: $2,714M- Q2 2025 Revenue: $10,386M- Loan Growth: Group +16% YoY (constant FX); Spain +6.3% YoY; Mexico +11.7% YoY- NII Growth: Group +11% YoY; Spain +2.2% YoY; Mexico +9.6% YoY
- Cost of Risk: Spain 32 bps (below guidance); Mexico 324 bps (guided below 350 bps)
- Efficiency Ratio: Group 37.6% (ex-VAT one-off: 38.6%)
- Capital: CET1 improved 25 bps QoQ to 13.34%
- Shareholder Returns: Announced nearly €1B buyback, regular payout at upper end of policy Conclusion: Q2 2025 was a strong quarter with robust loan growth, solid NII, best-in-class efficiency, and strong capital returns. The YoY comparable for Q2 2026 is tough, but consensus expects another double-digit increase in both revenue and net income.
Intra-Quarter Commentary and Outlook
- Mexico: Management repeatedly flagged positive bias to loan growth, with retail portfolios (consumer, credit cards, SMEs) driving momentum. NII expected to track slightly below loan growth due to spread compression, but spreads stabilizing as rates bottom.
- Spain: Loan growth remains strong, especially in enterprise and consumer; mortgage market share being sacrificed for profitability. NII growth to be supported by activity, with spreads stable to slightly lower.
- Deposit Costs: BBVA maintains a significant cost advantage in Mexico (2.19% vs. 3.4% for peers); time deposits up due to targeted campaigns as rates fall. In Spain, deposit growth driven by new client acquisition and transactional accounts.
- Costs: Group cost growth running above inflation due to investments and one-offs, but jaws remain positive and cost-to-income is best-in-class.
- Asset Quality: No signs of deterioration in Mexico credit cards; cost of risk guidance unchanged.
- Capital Returns: €4B buyback progressing; management reiterates commitment to distribute all CET1 above 12%.
- Turkey: Macro headwinds (inflation, rates) create a negative bias to prior profit guidance, but franchise remains resilient.
