Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) — Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
| Theme | Details |
|---|---|
| Guidance Raised | FY26 revenue guidance raised to $50.0B–$51.5B; adjusted EPS to $6.60–$6.80 |
| Growth Portfolio Momentum | Growth portfolio sales up +14% YoY in Q2, now ~60% of total revenue |
| Eliquis Outperformance | Eliquis revenue up +21% YoY in Q2; full-year growth guided at +20% to +25% |
| Pipeline Readouts Delayed | Milvexian AFib and Cobenfy ADEPT data now expected Q1 2027+ (was late 2026) |
| CELMoD Launches Imminent | Iberdomide PDUFA August 17, 2026; Mezigdomide PDUFA May 13, 2027 |
| Admilparant Readout | Phase III IPF readout expected by year-end 2026; PPF a few months later |
| Q3 Setup | Strong Q2 sets up for easier YoY comp in Q3; legacy portfolio drag moderating |
Most Important Factors to Watch This Quarter
| Factor | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Growth Portfolio Execution | Key driver of top-line; watch for continued double-digit growth and breadth across assets |
| Eliquis Performance | Outperformed in Q2; sustainability of high-teens/20%+ growth as pricing resets flow through |
| Admilparant Phase III | Readout expected by year-end; could be a major new pillar if efficacy/tolerability profile holds |
| CELMoD Launch Preparation | Iberdomide launch readiness and early uptake signals post-PDUFA |
| Cobenfy & Milvexian Timelines | Any further updates on event accrual or interim data for these delayed pivotal programs |
| Operating Expense Discipline | Ongoing cost savings program; ability to reinvest in launches while maintaining margin |
| Guidance Updates | Potential for further upward revision if momentum continues |
Recent Results and Forward Consensus
Quarterly Financials — Actuals and Consensus
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin (%) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 13,000* | 71.4* | |||
| Q1 2026 | 11,500* | 70.3* | |||
| Q4 2025 | 12,282 | 70.5 | 3,042 | 2,426 | 0.98 |
| Q3 2025 | 11,800 | 72.0 | 4,001 | 3,128 | 1.04 |
| Q2 2025 | 11,384 | 72.0 | 3,079 | 2,269 | 0.67 |
*Q2 2026 revenue and gross margin are management-reported, not consensus.
Forward Consensus (as of latest available)
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin (%) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12,662 | 69.1 | 4,922 | 3,555 | 1.46 |
| Q4 2026 | 12,696 | 68.1 | 4,674 | 3,235 | 1.29 |
Full-Year Consensus
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin (%) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47,987 | 72.0 | 15,415 | 12,404 | 4.02 |
| 2026 | 49,842 | 69.6 | 19,160 | 14,217 | 5.61 |
Guidance Summary
FY2026 Guidance (as of Q2 2026)
| Metric | Guidance (Q2 2026) | Prior Guidance (Q1 2026) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.0B–$51.5B | $46.0B–$47.5B | Raised on strong H1, Eliquis outperformance |
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | $6.60–$6.80 | $6.05–$6.35 | Raised |
| Gross Margin | 69%–70% | 69%–70% | Unchanged |
| Operating Expenses | Slightly increased | $16.3B | To support CELMoD launches, pumitamig, growth portfolio |
| Eliquis Revenue Growth | +20% to +25% YoY | +10% to +15% YoY | Driven by demand, price reset, CPI penalty elimination |
| Legacy Portfolio Decline | -4% to -6% YoY | -12% to -16% YoY | Less pronounced decline |
Key Pipeline Milestones
| Program | Event/Timing | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Iberdomide | PDUFA August 17, 2026 | First CELMoD launch; PFS data to follow |
| Mezigdomide | PDUFA May 13, 2027 | Second CELMoD; SUCCESSOR-2 positive, PFS at ASCO |
| Admilparant | Phase III IPF readout YE 2026 | PPF a few months later; first-in-class LPA1 antagonist |
| Milvexian AFib | Phase III readout Q1 2027 | Delayed from late 2026; DMC continues to endorse |
| Cobenfy ADEPT | Top-line data early 2027 | ADEPT-1 interim possible late 2026 |
| Sotyktu Lupus | Phase III readout late 2026 | High unmet need; positive Phase II |
How Did They Report Last Year? Are They Coming Off a Tough Comparable?
- Q3 2025 Revenue: $11,800M (+3.7% YoY vs. Q3 2024)
- Q3 2025 Growth Portfolio: +17% YoY
- Q3 2025 Legacy Portfolio: Declined ~15%–17% YoY
- Q3 2025 EPS (GAAP): $1.04
YoY Comparison for Q3 2026:
- Q3 2026 consensus revenue is $12,662M, implying +7.3% YoY growth vs. Q3 2025.
- The company is coming off a relatively easy comparable, as Q3 2025 was impacted by legacy portfolio declines, which are now moderating.
- Growth portfolio momentum has accelerated, and Eliquis is now a tailwind rather than a drag.
Segment/Asset Commentary
| Asset/Segment | Q2 2026 Performance | Trend/Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Growth Portfolio | +14% YoY, $7.6B | Now nearly 60% of total revenue; 10 products double-digit |
| Eliquis | +21% YoY, $4.5B | Outperformed; CPI penalty elimination boosts H2 |
| Opdivo/Qvantig | Qvantig $261M, +share | Qvantig annualizing >$1B; Opdivo down -4% on conversion |
| Reblozyl | +29% YoY | Strong 1L/2L MDS uptake, RS-negative opportunity |
| Breyanzi | +41% YoY | Best-in-class profile, strong US/OUS demand |
| Camzyos | +59% YoY | Community penetration, new patient adds |
| Cobenfy | +81% YoY, $63M | Steady schizophrenia growth, label expansion upside |
| Sotyktu | +23% YoY | Awaiting lupus data; psoriatic arthritis launch underway |
Management Commentary and Intra-Quarter Color
- Growth Portfolio: Management repeatedly emphasized breadth and durability, with 10 products growing double digits and the portfolio now nearly 60% of revenue.
- Eliquis: "Eliquis delivered demand-driven growth of 21%, which nearly offset declines from generic entry across the remainder of the legacy portfolio."
- Pipeline: "We are increasingly encouraged about milvexian's potential and look forward to seeing the results of this important study."
- Admilparant: "This is becoming a very important readout... we believe that admilparant can be first and best-in-class against LPA1."
- CELMoDs: "We're very much looking forward to iberdomide's PDUFA date... our commercial teams are launch ready."
- Cobenfy/Milvexian Delays: Both are event-driven; delays reflect slower-than-expected event accrual, not operational issues. Management views this as a positive for risk profile.
Summary and Conclusions
- Q3 2026 Setup: BMY enters Q3 with strong momentum, easier YoY comps, and raised guidance. Growth portfolio and Eliquis are both outperforming, offsetting legacy drag.
- Key Watch Items: Execution on growth portfolio, sustainability of Eliquis strength, progress on CELMoD launch, and any updates on delayed pivotal readouts (milvexian, Cobenfy).
- Guidance Bias: With H1 tracking at the upper end of guidance and legacy drag moderating, risk is skewed to the upside if current trends persist.
- Pipeline Catalysts: Admilparant Phase III readout by year-end is the next major clinical event; CELMoD launches could drive incremental growth in 2027+.
- Conclusion: BMY is well positioned for a strong Q3 print, with the focus shifting to execution on upcoming launches and pivotal pipeline readouts in late 2026/early 2027.
Upcoming Catalysts
- Iberdomide PDUFA: August 17, 2026
- Admilparant Phase III (IPF): By year-end 2026
- Milvexian AFib Phase III: Q1 2027
- Cobenfy ADEPT Top-Line: Early 2027
- Mezigdomide PDUFA: May 13, 2027
Overall, expect Q3 2026 to show continued strong growth portfolio execution, robust Eliquis performance, and disciplined cost management, with investor focus on the upcoming wave of pivotal pipeline readouts and launch execution.
