Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Guidance Reaffirmed | FY26 revenue guidance: $46.0B–$47.5B; non-GAAP EPS: $6.05–$6.35, trending toward upper end |
| Consensus Estimates (Q2) | Revenue: $11,702M; Gross Margin: 69.9%; Net Income: $3,289M; EPS (GAAP): $1.29 |
| Growth Portfolio | Q1 2026: +12% YoY to $6.2B; led by Camzyos, Breyanzi, Reblozyl; steady Cobenfy growth |
| Legacy Portfolio | Q1 2026: -6% YoY to $5.3B; Eliquis +16% YoY, offset by generic erosion in Revlimid/Pomalyst |
| Q2 2025 Comparable | Q2 2025 revenue: $12,269M; Growth Portfolio: $6.6B (+18%); Legacy Portfolio: $5.7B (-14%) |
| Key Watch Items | Growth Portfolio momentum, Eliquis double-digit growth, impact of generics, margin trend, pivotal data readouts in H2 2026 |
Most Important Factors for Q2 2026
| Focus Area | What to Watch For |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Can BMY sustain double-digit growth in the Growth Portfolio and offset continued Legacy Portfolio declines? |
| Eliquis Performance | Is Eliquis tracking toward the guided +10–15% YoY growth for FY26? |
| Gross Margin | Will gross margin stabilize at 69–70% as guided, given product mix shifts (higher Eliquis, lower Revlimid)? |
| Operating Expenses | Is OpEx trending down as planned (~$16.3B for FY26), with cost savings offsetting new launch investments? |
| Pipeline Catalysts | Any updates on pivotal readouts for milvexian (AFib/SSP), admilparant (IPF), iberdomide/mezigdomide, Cobenfy (ADP)? |
| Cobenfy Uptake | Is Cobenfy showing steady TRx growth in schizophrenia, and are there signals of inflection ahead of ADP data? |
| Camzyos/Breyanzi | Are these assets maintaining >$1B annualized run rates and expanding prescriber base/community penetration? |
| Qvantig Conversion | Is Opdivo Qvantig (subcu) conversion rate progressing toward 30–40% target by 2028? |
| Competitive Dynamics | Any early impact from new competition in HCM (Aficamten) or other key markets? |
Q2 2026 Consensus vs. Guidance
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | FY26 Guidance (Full Year) | Q1 2026 Actual | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 11,702 | $46,000–$47,500 | 11,489 | Guidance trending toward upper end |
| Gross Margin (%) | 69.9 | 69–70 | 70.3 | Product mix shift (Eliquis up, Revlimid down) |
| Net Income ($M) | 3,289 | 2,889 | ||
| EPS (GAAP) | 1.29 | 1.15 | Non-GAAP EPS guide: $6.05–$6.35 | |
| Cash Flow/Share ($) | 2.36 | 1.50 |
Q2 2025 Actuals (YoY Comparable)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | YoY Change vs. Q2 2024 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 12,269 | +1% | Growth Portfolio: $6.6B (+18%), Legacy: $5.7B (-14%) |
| Gross Margin (%) | 72.5 (GAAP) | -0.7pp | Non-GAAP: 72.6% |
| Net Income ($M) | 1,310 (GAAP) | -22% | Non-GAAP: $2,985M |
| EPS (GAAP) | 0.64 | -22% | Non-GAAP: $1.46 |
Recent Performance and Setup
- Q1 2026: Revenue +3% YoY (+1% ex-FX), Growth Portfolio +12% (+9% ex-FX), Legacy Portfolio -6% (-8% ex-FX).
- Growth Portfolio: Camzyos (+97%), Breyanzi (+56%), Reblozyl (+16%), Cobenfy (+107%), Qvantig (>200%).
- Legacy Portfolio: Eliquis +16% (tracking toward +10–15% FY26 guide), Revlimid -63%, Pomalyst -22%.
- Gross Margin: 70.3% (down 280 bps YoY), reflecting higher Eliquis/lower Revlimid mix.
- OpEx: $3.9B, slightly above prior year, but full-year OpEx expected to decline.
- EPS: $1.58 (non-GAAP), includes $(0.03) per share IPRD/licensing impact.
Management Commentary and Intra-Quarter Color
- Guidance Reaffirmed: "We are reaffirming our financial guidance for the full year of 2026. Based upon the first quarter results and our current projections, we see our financial performance tracking towards the upper end of our established revenue and EPS guidance ranges."
- Growth Portfolio: "Our growth portfolio continued to perform well with global revenue increasing 9% to $6.2 billion... several products that are still early in their life cycles are driving growth as we intentionally expand our business across a wider range of key assets."
- Eliquis: "We continued to see strong demand. And given our U.S. price reduction that took effect at the beginning of the year, we also saw some wholesaler inventory build in the first quarter. We anticipate this build to reverse in the second quarter."
- Pipeline: "Among the Phase III readouts expected late in the year are milvexian in atrial fibrillation and secondary stroke prevention, Cobenfy in Alzheimer's psychosis, admilparant in IPF and iberdomide PFS data."
- Cobenfy: "Cobenfy is delivering steady growth, and we've got a number of catalysts to look forward to over the next 12 to 24 months, including things like Alzheimer's disease psychosis readout, bipolar readout, Alzheimer's agitation."
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 Preview: Expectation is for continued double-digit growth in the Growth Portfolio, led by Camzyos, Breyanzi, Reblozyl, and Cobenfy. Eliquis is expected to deliver double-digit growth, offsetting ongoing generic erosion in Revlimid and Pomalyst.
- Comparables: Q2 2025 was a tough comp for the Growth Portfolio (+18% YoY), but the Legacy Portfolio was already in steep decline (-14%). Q2 2026 will lap a period of strong growth in new launches and accelerating generic headwinds.
- Guidance: Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance and sees performance trending toward the upper end of the range. Key watch items are the sustainability of Growth Portfolio momentum, Eliquis growth, and margin management.
- Catalysts: Multiple pivotal data readouts expected in H2 2026 (milvexian, admilparant, iberdomide, mezigdomide, Cobenfy in ADP) could reshape the long-term growth profile.
- Risks: Watch for any signs of slowing in Growth Portfolio uptake, unexpected margin compression, or pipeline setbacks.
