Walt Disney Co. (DIS) — Q4 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
- Consensus expects Q4 2026 revenue of $25,194M and EBITDA of $5,653M, both up modestly YoY; net income consensus is $2,942M, EPS $1.48.
- Management guides to Q4 total segment operating income of ~$4.9B (including the 53rd week), with the 53rd week contributing ~$600M.
- Full-year FY26 adjusted EPS growth guided at +12% ex-53rd week, +16% including it; FY27 double-digit adjusted EPS growth expected ex-53rd week.
- Experiences segment OI now guided to the high end of prior high-single-digit growth for FY26 (ex-53rd week); Sports OI to grow mid-single digits; Entertainment OI double-digit growth—all ex-53rd week.
- Key focus areas for the print: Experiences segment margin/volume, SVOD margin and engagement, impact of Moana box office miss, advertising trends, cruise and park attendance, and progress on cost efficiency.
- Q4 2025 was a tough comp for Entertainment OI due to strong box office and consumer products; Q3 2026 saw strong Toy Story 5 and Experiences outperformance.
Table 1: Q4 2026 Consensus Estimates vs. Prior Year Actuals
| Metric | Q4 2026E | Q4 2025 Actual | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 25,194 | 22,464 | +12.1% | Consensus vs. reported |
| EBITDA ($M) | 5,653 | 4,039 | +40.0% | Consensus vs. reported |
| Net Income ($M) | 2,942 | 1,313 | +124.2% | Consensus vs. reported |
| EPS (GAAP) | 1.48 | 0.73 | +102.7% | Consensus vs. reported |
| Cash Flow/Share ($) | 2.55 | 0.76 | +235.5% | Consensus vs. reported |
Note: Q4 2026 includes a 53rd week; Q4 2025 figures are as reported in the source documents.
Table 2: Full-Year Guidance and Consensus — FY26
| Metric | FY26 Guidance (Mgmt) | FY26E Consensus | FY25 Actual | YoY Change (Guidance) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 101,577 | 94,425 | +7.6% | Consensus vs. reported | |
| EBITDA ($M) | 22,729 | 19,615 | +15.9% | Consensus vs. reported | |
| Net Income ($M) | 12,240 | 12,404 | -1.3% | Consensus vs. reported | |
| EPS (GAAP) | 5.70 | 6.85 | -16.8% | Consensus vs. reported | |
| Adjusted EPS | +12% ex-53rd week, +16% incl. | 5.93 | +12–16% (guidance) | Management guidance | |
| Segment OI (Total, $M) | 17,551 | Not guided | |||
| Experiences OI Growth | High end of high-single digit | 9,995 | ~+9–10% | Ex-53rd week; management guidance | |
| Sports OI Growth | Mid-single digit | 2,882 | ~+5% | Ex-53rd week; management guidance | |
| Entertainment OI Growth | Double digit | 4,674 | ≥+10% | Ex-53rd week; management guidance | |
| Entertainment SVOD Margin | Double digit (≥10%) | 5% (FY25) | +500 bps | Ex-53rd week; management guidance | |
| Share Repurchases ($B) | ≥9 | 3.5 | +157% | Management guidance | |
| CapEx ($B) | ~9 | 8.0 | +12.5% | Management guidance | |
| Cash from Ops ($B) | ≥19 | 18.1 | +5% | Management guidance |
Table 3: Q4 2026 Guidance — Segment Operating Income
| Segment | Q4 2026 Guidance ($M) | Q4 2025 Actual ($M) | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Segment OI | ~4,900 | 3,480 | +40.8% | Includes 53rd week (~$600M benefit) |
| Experiences OI | High end of high-single digit FY growth | 1,878 | Q4 not separately guided; full-year guide | |
| Sports OI | Mid-single digit FY growth | 911 | Q4 not separately guided; full-year guide | |
| Entertainment OI | Double digit FY growth | 691 | Q4 not separately guided; full-year guide |
Table 4: Q4 2025 Actuals — Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue ($M) | Operating Income ($M) | Margin* | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entertainment | 10,208 | 691 | 6.8% | Margin calculated* |
| Sports | 3,980 | 911 | 22.9% | Margin calculated* |
| Experiences | 8,766 | 1,878 | 21.4% | Margin calculated* |
| Total | 22,464 | 3,480 | 15.5% | Margin calculated* |
*Margin = Operating Income / Revenue
What to Watch for in Q4 2026
1. Segment Operating Income and Margins
- Total segment OI is guided to ~$4.9B, up sharply YoY, with the 53rd week adding ~$600M.
- Experiences OI is expected at the high end of high-single-digit growth for FY26 (ex-53rd week), driven by strong domestic parks, cruise expansion, and Consumer Products.
- Entertainment OI is guided to double-digit growth for FY26 (ex-53rd week), but Q4 will reflect the impact of Moana's box office underperformance and softer domestic SVOD advertising.
- Sports OI is guided to mid-single-digit growth for FY26 (ex-53rd week), with Q4 benefiting from the timing of sports rights and strong ESPN viewership.
2. SVOD (Streaming) KPIs
- Entertainment SVOD margin is expected to remain in double digits (≥10%) for FY26, with Q3 at 13%.
- Watch for commentary on churn, engagement, and international subscriber growth, especially as local content investment ramps up.
- Management is focused on reducing churn via product improvements, bundling, and international originals.
3. Experiences Segment — Parks, Cruises, Consumer Products
- Q3 saw 4% global guest growth and 3% domestic park attendance growth; per capita spending up 4%.
- Cruise capacity increased ~50% YoY in Q3; forward bookings remain robust.
- Management expects continued healthy growth in Q4, with new attractions and cruise ships supporting volume and yield.
- Asia parks remain soft, but Paris and domestic parks are outperforming.
4. Advertising Trends
- SVOD ad revenue growth slowed to +3% in Q3 (vs. +12% in Q2), reflecting supply-driven pricing pressure.
- Sports advertising remains strong, with Super Bowl inventory sold out and upfront volumes up double digits.
- Monitor for further commentary on ad market dynamics, especially in streaming.
5. Cost Efficiency and Capital Allocation
- Management is actively pursuing cost reductions, including labor and SG&A, to fund growth investments.
- CapEx for FY26 guided at ~$9B, with a focus on parks, cruise expansion, and technology.
- Share repurchase target raised to ≥$9B for FY26, reflecting confidence in cash generation and proceeds from asset sales.
6. Guidance and Outlook
- FY26 adjusted EPS growth guided at +12% ex-53rd week, +16% including it; FY27 double-digit adjusted EPS growth expected ex-53rd week.
- Q4 segment OI guided to ~$4.9B, including the 53rd week.
- Management reiterates confidence in long-term growth drivers: Experiences and Streaming.
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q4 2025)
- Q4 2025 revenue was $22,464M (flat YoY), total segment OI $3,480M (-5% YoY).
- Diluted EPS was $0.73, adjusted EPS $1.11 (-3% YoY).
- Entertainment OI fell -35% YoY due to tough comps from prior-year box office hits (Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine).
- Experiences OI grew +13% YoY, driven by cruise and international parks.
- Sports OI declined -2% YoY, with higher costs offsetting revenue gains.
- Q4 2025 was a tough comp for Entertainment, but Experiences and Consumer Products were strong.
Are They Coming Off a Tough Y/Y Comparable?
- Yes, for Entertainment OI, Q4 2025 was a tough comp due to blockbuster films and strong consumer products.
- Experiences had strong growth in Q4 2025, but management expects to exceed even those levels in Q4 2026, driven by capacity expansion and pricing.
- Sports faces easier comps in Q4 2026 due to timing of rights and strong recent viewership.
Summary and Conclusions
- Disney enters Q4 2026 with strong momentum in Experiences and Streaming, and management is guiding to robust YoY growth in segment OI and adjusted EPS.
- Key factors to watch are the sustainability of Experiences growth (parks, cruises, consumer products), SVOD margin and engagement, and the impact of Moana's box office miss on Entertainment OI.
- Advertising trends, especially in SVOD, and cost efficiency initiatives will be closely scrutinized.
- Management's confidence is reflected in an increased share repurchase target and reiterated double-digit EPS growth guidance into FY27.
- Q4 2025 was a tough comp for Entertainment, but the company is positioned to deliver strong YoY growth in Q4 2026, aided by the 53rd week and ongoing execution on its strategic priorities.
Most Important Factors for Q4 2026 Print
| Factor | Why It Matters | What to Watch For |
|---|---|---|
| Experiences OI & Margin | Largest earnings driver, high returns, CapEx ramp | Volume vs. yield, cruise fill rates, per cap growth |
| Entertainment SVOD Margin | Streaming profitability inflection, margin expansion | Churn, engagement, international growth, ad trends |
| Segment OI Growth | Core to EPS delivery, guidance at high end for Experiences | Q4 OI vs. guide, 53rd week impact |
| Advertising Trends | Macro indicator, SVOD ad softness vs. sports strength | SVOD ad growth, sports ad sell-through, pricing |
| Cost Efficiency | Funding for growth, margin expansion | Commentary on SG&A, labor, productivity initiatives |
| Capital Allocation | Buybacks, CapEx, dividend, asset sales | Execution on $9B buyback, CapEx discipline |
| Box Office/Content Flywheel | Downstream impact on CP, parks, streaming | Moana, Toy Story 5, upcoming slate, CP sales |
Conclusion:
Disney is set up for a strong Q4 2026 print, with management guiding to robust YoY growth in segment OI and adjusted EPS, supported by Experiences and Streaming. The 53rd week provides a tailwind, but underlying momentum in parks, cruises, and SVOD margin expansion are the key drivers. The main risks are continued SVOD ad softness and any macro-driven pullback in consumer demand, but forward bookings and management commentary remain positive. The year-ago comp is challenging for Entertainment, but easier for Experiences and Sports. Execution on cost efficiency and capital allocation will also be in focus.
