Amphenol (APH) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Consensus Revenue | $8,272M (+43% YoY) |
| Consensus Adjusted EPS | $1.15 (+41% YoY) |
| Company Guidance | Revenue: $8,100M–$8,200M (+43% to +45% YoY); Adj. EPS: $1.14–$1.16 (+41% to +43% YoY) |
| Prior-Year Comp (Q2 2025) | Revenue: $5,650M; Adj. EPS: $0.81 |
| Key Watch Areas | IT datacom growth, CommScope (CCS) integration, margin sustainability, order momentum |
| Book-to-Bill | Q1 2026: 1.24x (record $9.4B orders); Q4 2025: 1.31x (record $8.4B orders) |
| Recent Actuals | Q1 2026: Revenue $7,620M (+58% YoY), Adj. EPS $1.06 (+68% YoY), Adj. Op Margin 27.3% |
Summary and Conclusions
- Amphenol enters Q2 2026 earnings with strong momentum: Q1 2026 results exceeded the high end of guidance, with revenue up +58% YoY and adjusted EPS up +68% YoY. Bookings and book-to-bill ratios remain robust, driven by continued strength in IT datacom (AI-related demand), defense, and industrial markets.
- Guidance for Q2 2026 is strong: The company expects revenue of $8.1B–$8.2B (+43% to +45% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.14–$1.16 (+41% to +43% YoY), both above prior-year levels and in line with consensus.
- Year-over-year comparables are tough: Q2 2025 saw a significant jump in both revenue (+57% YoY at the time) and adjusted EPS (+84% YoY at the time), so the current quarter faces a high base.
- Key factors to watch:
- IT datacom segment: Will the segment sustain its exceptional growth (Q1 2026: +99% YoY, +81% organic)?
- CommScope (CCS) integration: Is CCS delivering on the expected ~$4.1B annual run-rate and $0.15 EPS accretion for FY26? Is margin dilution from CCS moderating as expected?
- Margins: Can Amphenol maintain or expand its industry-leading adjusted operating margin (Q1 2026: 27.3%) despite acquisition dilution and cost pressures?
- Order momentum: Are book-to-bill and order trends holding up, especially in IT datacom and defense?
- Tax rate: Adjusted effective tax rate has increased to 27% due to China tax matters and income mix; any further developments here could impact EPS.
Forward-Looking Table: Q2 2026 Consensus and Guidance
| Metric | Company Guidance (Q2 2026) | Consensus Estimate (Q2 2026) | YoY Growth (Guidance) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $8,100–$8,200 | $8,272 | +43% to +45% | Guidance includes CCS; consensus at upper end |
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | $1.14–$1.16 | $1.15 | +41% to +43% | Guidance excludes $0.01/share acquisition costs |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | $1.13–$1.15 (implied) | $1.15 | Guidance includes $0.01/share acquisition costs | |
| Adjusted Op Margin | Q1 2026 actual: 27.3% | |||
| Book-to-Bill | Q1 2026 actual: 1.24x |
Recent Actuals: Quarterly Trend
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Adjusted Diluted EPS | YoY Growth | Adjusted Op Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 7,620 | +58% | $1.06 | +68% | 27.3% |
| Q4 2025 | 6,439 | +49% | $0.97 | +76% | 27.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 6,194 | +53% | $0.93 | +86% | 27.5% |
| Q2 2025 | 5,650 | +57% | $0.81 | +84% | 25.6% |
Prior-Year Comparable: Q2 2025
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | YoY Growth vs. Q2 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 5,650 | +57% |
| Adjusted Diluted EPS | $0.81 | +84% |
| Adjusted Op Margin | 25.6% | +430 bps |
| Book-to-Bill | 0.98x |
Segment Performance: Q1 2026
| Segment | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Organic Growth | Op Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications Solutions | 4,535 | +88% | +47% | 30.6% |
| Harsh Environment | 1,693 | +34% | +23% | 28.0% |
| Interconnect & Sensor Sys | 1,392 | +23% | +17% | 20.2% |
What to Watch for in Q2 2026 Results
1. IT Datacom Momentum- Q1 2026: +99% YoY, +81% organic; represented 41% of total sales.
- Management expects "further sequential sales increase in Q2 in the low teens level" for IT datacom.
- Key: Is AI-driven demand still accelerating? Any signs of order pull-ins or digestion?
2. CommScope (CCS) Integration and Accretion
- CCS closed in January 2026; expected to deliver ~$4.1B in FY26 sales and $0.15 in FY26 EPS accretion.
- Q1 2026: CCS organic growth "largely at the same pace of Amphenol's own organic growth."
- Margin dilution from CCS expected to moderate over time; Q1 2026 included $179M noncash amortization and $70M transaction costs.
3. Margins and Cost Pressures- Adjusted operating margin Q1 2026: 27.3% (down 20 bps QoQ, up 380 bps YoY).
- Management expects continued strong margins, but notes CCS is still dilutive.
- Watch for commentary on pricing power, cost offsets, and ability to pass through inflation.
4. Order Trends and Book-to-Bill- Q1 2026: Book-to-bill 1.24x, record $9.4B orders; all end markets positive.
- Q4 2025: Book-to-bill 1.31x, record $8.4B orders.
- Key: Are orders and backlog still growing, especially in IT datacom and defense?
5. Tax Rate and China Exposure- Adjusted effective tax rate increased to 27% due to China tax matters and income mix.
- Q1 2026 included $130M accrual for China tax, plus $160M additional provision.
- Any further updates or impacts to EPS from tax matters?
6. Segment Trends- Defense: Q1 2026 +44% YoY, +25% organic; Q2 guide: high single-digit sequential increase.
- Industrial: Q1 2026 +52% YoY, +16% organic; Q2 guide: high single-digit sequential increase.
- Automotive: Q1 2026 +7% YoY, +2% organic; Q2 guide: modest sequential increase.
- Communications Networks: Q1 2026 +91% YoY (acquisition-driven), flat organic; Q2 guide: flat sequentially.
- Mobile Devices: Q1 2026 +2% YoY, +1% organic; Q2 guide: modest sequential decline.
Management Commentary Highlights
- On IT Datacom/AI: "Virtually all of this organic sequential sales growth was driven by growth in AI-related products... we expect a further sequential sales increase in Q2 in the low teens level as investments in AI data centers accelerate..."
- On CCS: "At least here in the first quarter, they achieved a growth level, largely at the same pace of Amphenol's own organic growth, which is really impressive and really outperforms what we would have thought back when we signed the deal."
- On Margins: "27.3%... just slightly under kind of record margins we had in the second half of last year. And that's inclusive of CommScope, which had a great quarter, but ultimately, certainly still as a margin -- has some margin dilution."
- On Orders: "We do have some customers who, because of investments that we're making, have opened up their order apertures... but I wouldn't say anything more broadly about extended lead times."
- On Tax: "The company increased its effective tax rate to 27% in the first quarter and expect that rate to remain for the remainder of 2026."
