AB InBev (BUD) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Factors to Watch for Q2 2026
| Factor | What to Watch / Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | Consensus expects continued mid-single digit growth; Q1 was +5.8% YoY. Look for sustainability post-FIFA. |
| Volume Growth | Q1 2026 saw +0.8% total, +1.2% beer volume. Is momentum sustained, especially after a strong Q1 and FIFA tailwind? |
| EBITDA Growth & Margin | Guidance is for 4–8% organic EBITDA growth FY26. Q1 EBITDA margin was flat YoY at 35.6%. Margin trajectory is key. |
| Revenue per Hectoliter | Q1 2026: +4.5% YoY, with mix and pricing both contributing. Watch for mix/pricing split and sustainability. |
| Beyond Beer & No-Alcohol | Q1 2026: Beyond Beer revenue +37%, No-Alcohol Beer +27%. Are these segments still driving outsized growth? |
| BEES Marketplace GMV | Q1 2026: +55% YoY to $1.1B. Is the digital platform scaling profitably and contributing to mix/margin? |
| U.S. Market Performance | Q1 2026: STRs +0.3%, share gains in beer and spirits. Can AB InBev sustain share gains and premiumization? |
| Brazil & Mexico Trends | Q1 2026: Record high beer volumes in both. Is premiumization and share gain continuing post-Easter/FIFA? |
| Cost Pressures & Phasing | H1 expected to see higher COGS (esp. in Brazil/Mexico), with relief in H2. How is management balancing this? |
| Guidance Reaffirmation | Will management reaffirm or update FY26 guidance for EBITDA, capex, tax rate, and other KPIs? |
Summary and Conclusions
- Q1 2026 was strong: Revenue +5.8%, beer volumes +1.2%, underlying EPS +20.8%. Growth was broad-based, with record Q1 volumes in key markets (Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, Peru).
- Momentum drivers: Premiumization, Beyond Beer (+37% revenue), No-Alcohol Beer (+27%), and digital BEES Marketplace (+55% GMV) were all key contributors.
- Guidance unchanged: Management continues to guide for FY26 organic EBITDA growth of 4–8%, net capex $3.5–4.0B, and normalized ETR of 26–28%.
- Q2 2026 setup: Q2 will include the impact of the FIFA World Cup, which historically adds 20–30bps to annual volume, concentrated in Q2/Q3. Expect a step-up in A&P spend and possible volume/mix uplift.
- Comparables: Q2 2025 was a solid quarter (revenue +3.0%, EBITDA +6.5%, beer volumes -2.2%). Q2 2026 faces a relatively easy volume comp but a tougher margin comp due to higher Q2 2025 margin expansion.
- Key risks: Cost inflation (especially in H1), FX volatility, consumer sentiment (esp. in LatAm), and sustainability of premium/Beyond Beer growth.
Recent Actuals — Quarterly Financials
Quarterly Results — Reported Revenue, EBITDA, Net Income, EPS
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 15,267 | 5,437 | 2,563 | 1.30 |
| Q4 2025 | 15,555 | 5,473 | 1,959 | 0.99 |
| Q3 2025 | 15,133 | 5,594 | 1,054 | 0.53 |
| Q2 2025 | 15,004 | 5,301 | 1,676 | 0.84 |
| Q1 2025 | 13,628 | 4,855 | 2,148 | 1.08 |
Note: Q1 2026 figures are reported actuals, not consensus.
Forward Consensus Estimates — Next Four Quarters
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) | Gross Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 16,338 | 5,864 | 2,231 | 1.22 | 56.8 |
| Q3 2026 | 16,226 | 6,053 | 2,275 | 1.25 | 57.1 |
| Q4 2026 | 16,612 | 6,079 | 2,248 | 1.22 | 56.0 |
| Q1 2027 | 16,222 | 5,832 | 2,067 | 56.7 |
Full-Year Actuals and Consensus
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) | Gross Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59,320 | 21,223 | 6,837 | 3.45 | 55.9 |
| 2026E | 64,298 | 23,266 | 8,629 | 4.73 | 56.8 |
Guidance Summary — FY26
| Metric | Guidance (FY26) | Notes/Context |
|---|---|---|
| Organic EBITDA Growth | 4–8% | "In line with our medium-term outlook" |
| Net Capex | $3.5–4.0B | |
| Normalized ETR | 26–28% | Does not consider potential future legislative changes |
| Net Finance Costs | $190–220M/quarter | Net pension interest and accretion expenses; avg. gross debt coupon ~4% |
Q2 2026 — What to Watch vs. Q2 2025
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus | YoY Setup / Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 15,004 | 16,338 | Q2 2025: +3.0% YoY; Q2 2026 consensus: +8.9% YoY |
| EBITDA ($M) | 5,301 | 5,864 | Q2 2025: +6.5% YoY; Q2 2026 consensus: +10.6% YoY |
| Net Income ($M) | 1,676 | 2,231 | Q2 2025: +11.7% YoY; Q2 2026 consensus: +33% YoY |
| EPS (GAAP) | 0.84 | 1.22 | Q2 2025: +15.1% YoY; Q2 2026 consensus: +45% YoY |
| Gross Margin (%) | 56.3 | 56.8 | Q2 2025: +55 bps YoY; Q2 2026 consensus: +50 bps YoY |
| Beer Volume Growth | -2.2% | Q2 2025: tough comp; Q2 2026 expected to benefit from FIFA |
Management Commentary — Most Recent
- On Q1 2026 performance: "Our business delivered a solid start to the year with broad-based volume growth and a 20.8% increase in Underlying EPS to reach 0.97 USD, a record high for the first quarter."
- On FIFA World Cup impact: "FIFA contributes historically anywhere from 20 bps to 30 bps of the year's volume...concentrated in June and July."
- On cost phasing: "We know that probably the biggest pressure is in half 1, maybe even more a little bit towards Q1, and then they start easing off as the months go by...we expect kind of a more balanced year when you go all the way to the end."
- On revenue per hl: "Mix was a very important component on our revenue per hectoliter growth, give or take inflation 3% to 3.5%. And what is built on top of that is the impact of the growing segments and growing brands..."
