Booking Holdings (BKNG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q2 2026
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Guidance vs. Consensus | Q2 2026 guidance: Room nights +2% to +4%, Gross bookings +4% to +6%, Revenue +4% to +6%, Adj. EBITDA +4% to +6%. Consensus: Revenue $7,172M, EBITDA $2,551M, EPS $2.38. |
| Middle East Conflict Impact | Management expects ~3ppt headwind to Q2 room night growth; watch for commentary on duration and recovery. |
| U.S. Growth | U.S. room night growth accelerated to low teens in Q1; is outperformance vs. market sustainable? |
| Direct Channel & Loyalty | Direct mix stable at mid-60%; Genius Level 2/3 share high-50% of room nights—look for further gains. |
| Alternative Accommodations | Q1 alt-accom room night growth +5.5%, global mix 38%; U.S. supply growing faster than global. |
| Connected Trip & Cross-Sell | Connected Trip transactions up high-teens %, now low double-digit % of total; watch for further penetration. |
| Margin Trajectory | Adj. EBITDA margin Q1 23.3% (+40bps YoY); FY26 guide for flat-to-+25bps margin expansion. |
| AI/Productivity Leverage | Customer service cost per booking down ~10% YoY; look for further efficiency signals from GenAI investments. |
| Capital Returns | Q1 buybacks $3.6B, dividend $0.42/share; leverage at 1.8x, $18.2B buyback authorization remains. |
Q2 2026 Guidance vs. Consensus
Q2 2026 Guidance (as of Q1 call):
| Metric | Guidance Range | FX Impact Included | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Room Nights Growth | 2% – 4% | No | ~3ppt headwind from Middle East conflict |
| Gross Bookings Growth | 4% – 6% | Yes (~2%) | High single digits to low double digits for FY26 |
| Revenue Growth | 4% – 6% | Yes (~2%) | High single digits for FY26 |
| Adj. EBITDA Growth | 4% – 6% | Yes (similar to rev) | Slightly faster than revenue for FY26 |
| Adj. EPS Growth | Low to mid-teens | Yes (~0.5% less than rev) |
Consensus Estimates (Q2 2026):
| Metric | Consensus ($M) | YoY Growth vs. Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7,172 | +9% |
| EBITDA | $2,551 | +16% |
| Net Income | $1,903 | +15% |
| GAAP EPS | $2.38 |
Note: Consensus figures are not actuals; use for preview only.
Q2 2025 Actuals (Restated Where Available)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | YoY Growth vs. Q2 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6,798M | +16% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $2,423M | +28% |
| Net Income | $895M | -41% |
| GAAP EPS | $27.43 | -38% |
| Adj. EPS | $55.40 | +32% |
| Room Nights | 309M | +8% |
| Gross Bookings | $46.7B | +13% |
Q2 2026 Setup: Year-on-Year Comparison
- Q2 2025 was a strong quarter: Revenue +16%, Adj. EBITDA +28%, Room nights +8%.
- Q2 2026 faces a tougher comparable: Q2 2025 benefited from robust travel demand and FX tailwinds (+4ppt).
- Q2 2026 headwinds: Middle East conflict expected to reduce room night growth by ~3ppt, with direct and indirect impacts on travel corridors (Europe–Asia, Middle East inbound/outbound).
- Underlying trends remain positive: Excluding conflict, management expects normalized growth would be at the high end of guidance.
Recent Actuals and Forward Guidance — Quarterly Trend
Quarterly Financials (Actuals and Consensus)
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Adj. EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | GAAP EPS | Room Nights (M) | Gross Bookings ($B) | YoY Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 5,517 | 1,290 | 1,083 | 1.36 | 338 | 53.8 | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | 6,349 | 2,195 | 1,428 | 44.22 | 285 | 43.0 | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | 9,008 | 4,231 | 2,748 | 84.41 | 323 | 49.7 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | 6,798 | 2,423 | 895 | 27.43 | 309 | 46.7 | +16% |
| Q2 2026E | 7,172 | 2,551 | 1,903 | 2.38 | +9% (consensus) |
FY 2026 Guidance and Consensus
| Metric | FY 2026 Guidance (as of Q1 2026) | Consensus ($M) | FY 2025 Actual | YoY Growth (Guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Bookings Growth | High single digits to low double digits | $186,100M | ||
| Revenue Growth | High single digits | $29,356 | $26,917M | +9% (consensus) |
| Adj. EBITDA Growth | Slightly faster than revenue | $10,929 | $9,937M | +10% (consensus) |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | Flat to +25bps YoY | 36.9% | ||
| Adj. EPS Growth | Low to mid-teens | $228.06 |
