Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Earnings Preview Memo
Key Points
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Consensus Q2 2026 Estimates | Revenue: $105,015M; EBITDA: $26,857M; Net Income: $15,451M; EPS: $3.41 |
| Guidance | FY26 cash capital expenditures: $27–29B; Share repurchases: $20B in 2026 (assuming reasonable market conditions); Structural cost savings target: $20B by 2030 |
| Recent Actuals (Q1 2026) | Revenue: $85,139M; Net Income: $4,183M; EPS: $1.00; FCF: $2,699M; Upstream production: 4,594 koebd |
| Prior Year Comparison (Q2 2025) | Revenue: $80,497M; Net Income: $6,760M; EPS: $1.57; Upstream production: 4,630 koebd |
| Key Watch Items for Q2 2026 |
|
| YoY Comparable | Q2 2025 was a relatively soft quarter due to lower crude prices, chemical margins, and higher depreciation; Q2 2026 faces an easier YoY comp but must show recovery from Q1 2026 disruptions |
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 consensus expects a sharp sequential rebound in revenue and earnings after Q1 2026 was impacted by Middle East supply disruptions, negative timing effects, and operational issues in Kazakhstan and the Permian.
- Key focus areas: Investors will be watching for normalization of trading/timing effects, restoration of upstream volumes (especially in Qatar and UAE), continued strong performance in Guyana and the Permian, and margin recovery in Energy Products.
- Cost discipline and capital returns: Management has reiterated its $27–29B capex range for FY26 and $20B share repurchase plan, with structural cost savings targeted at $20B by 2030. Delivery on these targets is a key support for the equity story.
- YoY comparable: Q2 2025 was a relatively weak quarter, so Q2 2026 faces an easier comp, but the market will want to see clear evidence of recovery and execution on growth projects.
Forward Consensus vs. Guidance — Q2 2026
Consensus Estimates — Q2 2026
| Metric | Consensus Estimate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 105,015 | Substantial sequential increase expected |
| EBITDA ($M) | 26,857 | Reflects margin/timing normalization |
| Net Income ($M) | 15,451 | Strong rebound from Q1 2026 |
| EPS (GAAP) | $3.41 | Up sharply QoQ, easy YoY comp |
| Cash Flow per Share ($) | $5.52 | |
| Upstream Production (koebd) | Not in consensus, but Q1 2026 was 4,594; Q2 expected to recover |
Company Guidance — FY 2026
| Metric | Guidance | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash Capital Expenditures ($B) | $27–29 | "Consistent with previous guidance" |
| Share Repurchases ($B) | $20 | "Assuming reasonable market conditions" |
| Structural Cost Savings ($B, cumulative by 2030) | $20 | $15.6B achieved as of Q1 2026 |
| Dividend per Share (quarterly) | $1.03 | Declared for Q2 2026 |
| Upstream Production (Permian, 2026) | 1.8M boe/d | "Remain on track" |
| Major Project Milestones | Golden Pass LNG Trains 2/3, Mozambique/Papua FID | Both expected to progress in 2026 |
Recent Actuals — Quarterly Trend
Quarterly Financials ($M except per-share data)
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS (GAAP) | EBITDA | FCF | Upstream Production (koebd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 85,139 | 4,183 | 1.00 | 13,007 | 2,699 | 4,594 |
| Q4 2025 | 82,308 | 6,501 | 1.53 | 17,218 | 5,566 | 4,988 |
| Q3 2025 | 85,295 | 7,548 | 1.76 | 17,505 | 6,332 | 4,769 |
| Q2 2025 | 80,497 | 6,760 | 1.57 | 15,833 | 5,393 | 4,630 |
| Q1 2025 | 86,088 | 7,474 | 1.74 | 16,917 | 8,840 | 4,551 |
Note: Q1 2026 net income and EPS were depressed by $3.9B in negative timing effects and $0.7B in identified items related to hedging losses from Middle East disruptions. Excluding these, underlying earnings were $8.8B ($2.09/share).
Prior Year Comparison — Q2 2025
- Q2 2025 Revenue: $80,497M- Q2 2025 Net Income: $6,760M- Q2 2025 EPS: $1.57- Q2 2025 Upstream Production: 4,630 koebd Context: Q2 2025 was impacted by weaker crude prices, bottom-of-cycle chemical margins, and higher depreciation. Advantaged volume growth in the Permian and Guyana partially offset these headwinds.
Key Factors to Watch for Q2 2026
1. Normalization of Trading/Timing Effects
- Q1 2026 saw a $3.9B negative impact from timing effects due to unsettled derivatives and supply chain disruptions. The market expects these to unwind in Q2, supporting a sharp rebound in reported earnings.
2. Upstream Production Recovery
- Q1 2026 upstream volumes were impacted by Middle East disruptions (Qatar, UAE), Kazakhstan outages, and a Permian winter storm.
- Watch for restoration of volumes, especially in Qatar (LNG) and UAE (Upper Zakum), and continued record output in Guyana and the Permian.
- Management expects full-year Permian production to reach 1.8M boe/d.
3. Energy Products Segment Margins and Volumes
- Refining margins spiked in March 2026 due to global supply disruptions; management highlighted record Gulf Coast utilization and rapid recovery of refinery throughput.
- Investors will look for sustained high margins and volumes, as well as any commentary on April/May trends.
4. Progress on Cost Savings and Capital Discipline
- Structural cost savings reached $15.6B as of Q1 2026; target is $20B by 2030.
- Capex discipline remains a focus, with $6.2B spent in Q1 2026 and full-year guidance unchanged.
- Shareholder returns: $9.2B distributed in Q1 2026 ($4.3B dividends, $4.9B buybacks).
5. Execution on Major Projects
- Golden Pass LNG Train 1 achieved first LNG in March; Trains 2 and 3 expected to complete by end-2026/early-2027.
- Mozambique and Papua New Guinea LNG FIDs are expected later in 2026.
- Watch for updates on project timelines, cost performance, and incremental volume contributions.
6. Segment Performance and Mix
- Chemical Products: Margins remain under pressure globally, but ExxonMobil's U.S. gas cracker footprint provides a feedstock advantage as crude prices rise.
- Specialty Products: Continued focus on high-value product sales and cost control.
