GSK plc (GSK) — Earnings Preview Memo
Key Factors to Watch for Next Earnings
| Factor | Details / What to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | FY2026 consensus: $45,403M (+4% YoY); Q2 2026 consensus: $11,059M. Compare to strong +7% FY2025 growth. |
| Specialty Medicines | Segment grew +17% in FY2025; guidance for low double-digit % growth in FY2026. Track momentum in launches. |
| Vaccines Segment | FY2026 guide: low single-digit decline to stable. Shingrix ex-US growth vs. US slowdown; China inventory. |
| HIV Franchise | FY2026 guide: mid- to high single-digit % growth. Long-acting injectables (Cabenuva, Apretude) key drivers. |
| Oncology Portfolio | Jemperli, Blenrep, Ojjaara: monitor uptake, new launches, and pivotal trial progress. |
| Exdensur (Depemokimab) Launch | Early days; watch for J-code access, bio-naive patient penetration, and switching from short-acting biologics |
| Bepirovirsen (bepi) Approval | PDUFA Oct 26, 2026. Monitor regulatory progress, launch plans, and initial market access/pricing commentary. |
| R&D Spend & Pipeline | R&D to grow ahead of sales in FY2026. Track pipeline acceleration, pivotal trial starts, and BD activity. |
| Margin Leverage | FY2026 guide: core operating profit/EPS +7–9%. Watch gross margin (mix, supply chain), SG&A productivity. |
| Cash Flow | FY2026 target: >£10B CGFO. Monitor FCF, BD outflows, and capital allocation. |
| Guidance Updates | Any changes to FY2026 or long-term (2031+) revenue/segment targets, especially for Specialty/HIV/Oncology. |
Summary and Conclusions
- GSK enters its next earnings with strong momentum: FY2025 sales grew +7% to £32B, driven by Specialty Medicines (+17%), with core operating profit up +11% and EPS +12%. The company upgraded its dividend and delivered five FDA approvals.
- FY2026 guidance is for continued profitable growth: Sales +3–5%, core operating profit/EPS +7–9%, Specialty up low double digits, HIV up mid- to high single digits, Vaccines and GenMed flat to slightly down.
- Key focus areas: Execution of new launches (notably Exdensur and Blenrep), accelerating late-stage pipeline (B7-H3/H4 ADCs, efimosfermin, bepirovirsen), and driving operational leverage.
- Comparables: GSK is coming off a strong FY2025 with robust growth in Specialty, HIV, and Oncology. The YoY comp is not unusually tough, but the bar is high given recent upgrades and strong prior-year performance.
- Consensus expectations: FY2026 revenue $45,403M (+4% YoY), Q2 2026 $11,059M. Margins expected to benefit from mix and productivity, but R&D spend will be elevated.
- Catalysts: Bepirovirsen approval (Oct 2026), pivotal trial readouts (Jemperli, camlipixant, Exdensur in EGPA, HIV Q4M PrEP), and ongoing launches in Oncology and Respiratory.
Recent Financial Performance — Actuals
Annual Results (GBP, as reported)
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (£M) | YoY Growth | Core Op Profit (£M) | Core EPS (p) | Dividend (p) | Specialty Growth | HIV Growth | Vaccines Growth | GenMed Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32,000+ | +7% | 66 | +17% | +11% | +2% | Slightly down | ||
| 2024 |
Quarterly Results (GBP, as reported)
| Quarter | Revenue (£M) | YoY Growth | Specialty Growth | HIV Growth | Vaccines Growth | GenMed Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 7,600+ | +5% | +14% | +10% | +20% (Shingrix) | -6% | Strong Shingrix, Nucala, Jemperli |
| Q4 2025 |
Forward Consensus and Guidance
FY2026 Consensus vs. Guidance
| Metric | FY2026 Consensus | FY2026 Guidance (CER) | FY2025 Actual (as reported) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $45,403M | +3–5% YoY | $43,780M* |
| Core Operating Profit | +7–9% YoY | ||
| Core EPS | +7–9% YoY | ||
| Dividend (p) | 70 (+6%) | 66 | |
| Specialty Medicines | Low double-digit % growth | +17% | |
| HIV | Mid- to high single-digit % | +11% | |
| Vaccines | Low single-digit decline/stable | +2% | |
| GenMed | Low single-digit decline/stable | Slightly down |
*Converted from GBP to USD using consensus data.
Q2 2026 Consensus
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $11,059M |
| Gross Margin | 75.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $3,994M |
| Net Income ($M) | $2,552M |
| EPS (GAAP) | $0.53 |
Segment and Product Commentary
Specialty Medicines
- Growth engine: +17% in FY2025, guided to low double-digit % in FY2026.
- Key launches: Exdensur (depemokimab) in severe asthma (watch J-code access, bio-naive uptake), Blenrep in multiple myeloma (community adoption, REMS program), Nucala COPD (COPD label expansion).
- Pipeline: B7-H3/B7-H4 ADCs, efimosfermin (FGF21 analog for MASH), camlipixant (chronic cough, Phase III readout mid-2026).
HIV
- Transition to long-acting injectables: Cabenuva and Apretude now >1/3 of US HIV sales, >75% of HIV growth.
- FY2026 guide: Mid- to high single-digit % growth.
- Pipeline: Q4M and Q6M regimens (3x and 2x yearly dosing), with Q4M PrEP data H2 2026, launch H1 2027. Q6M treatment Phase II underway, launch targeted by end of decade.
- Dolutegravir LOE: Glide path, not cliff; long-acting injectables expected to offset erosion.
Vaccines
- FY2026 guide: Low single-digit decline to stable.
- Shingrix: Ex-US growth (Europe, Japan), US slowing as penetration nears 45%. China: demand improving, but inventory overhang persists.
- Arexvy: Ex-US growth, US market slower.
- Meningitis: Bexsero strong in Europe/international.
Oncology
- Jemperli: Endometrial cancer OS benefit, rectal cancer pivotal readout H2 2026, head and neck pivotal ongoing.
- Blenrep: Early US launch in 3L+, community uptake, slow ramp expected; ex-US 2L+ approvals progressing.
- Ojjaara: Category 1 for anemia in myelofibrosis, growth in all markets.
- Pipeline: B7-H3 (Ris-Rez) and B7-H4 (Mo-Rez) ADCs, velzatinib (IDRx) for GIST, multiple pivotal trials starting in 2026.
Bepirovirsen (bepi)
- PDUFA date: October 26, 2026.
- Phase III data: Functional cure rates of 19% (ITT, HBsAg <3,000) and 26% (<1,000), 0% in placebo/SoC. Safety profile manageable.
- Launch: Focus on treated, motivated patients in US, China, Japan. Pricing expected in hep C range. Some bolus at launch, but not on hep C scale.
Margin, Cash Flow, and Capital Allocation
- Margin leverage: FY2025 operating margin +110 bps, driven by SG&A productivity and specialty mix. FY2026 guide: further improvement, but R&D to grow ahead of sales.
- Cash flow: FY2026 target >£10B CGFO. FCF to support BD, pipeline, and shareholder returns.
- Capital allocation: Ongoing BD (RAPT, 35Pharma, Frontier), focus on bolt-on deals in core therapy areas.
Management Commentary and Strategic Priorities
- Execution focus: "Products are the key in this business, and we need to be more product-centric." (Luke Miels, CEO)
- Pipeline acceleration: "We are focused on progressing high potential assets more aggressively...using scientific courage to make decisions in an accelerated way."
- BD discipline: "We continue to add high-value innovation at earlier stages of development...BD remains a key driver of our pipeline expansion."
- Long-term targets: "We remain very confident in our medium and longer-term outlooks to 2026 and '31." (More than £40B sales by 2031.)
