Howmet Aerospace (HWM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points Table
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Consensus Q2 2026 Revenue | $2,400M (rounded, per consensus) |
| Guidance Q2 2026 Revenue | $2,390M–$2,410M (midpoint: $2,400M) |
| Consensus Q2 2026 Adj. EBITDA | $765M (rounded, per guidance; consensus: $772M) |
| Guidance Q2 2026 Adj. EBITDA | $760M–$770M (midpoint: $765M) |
| Consensus Q2 2026 Adj. EPS | $1.23 (rounded, per guidance; consensus: $1.24) |
| Guidance Q2 2026 Adj. EPS | $1.22–$1.24 (midpoint: $1.23) |
| Q2 2025 Actual Revenue | $1,942M (restated) |
| Q2 2025 Actual Adj. EBITDA | $560M (restated) |
| Q2 2025 Actual Adj. EPS | $0.86 (restated) |
| YoY Comparable | Q2 2026 faces a very strong YoY comp: Q2 2025 revenue +9% YoY, EBITDA margin +300bps YoY |
| Key Watch Items | Organic growth ex-M&A, Engine Products/IGT capacity, spares mix, margin expansion, integration of CAM/Brunner, macro/geopolitical risks |
Summary and Conclusions
- Howmet Aerospace is guiding to another quarter of double-digit top-line and bottom-line growth, with Q2 2026 revenue expected at $2,400M (midpoint), up +24% YoY versus Q2 2025 actuals ($1,942M).
- Adj. EBITDA guidance for Q2 2026 is $765M (midpoint), up +37% YoY, with margin expansion to ~31.9% (vs. 28.8% in Q2 2025).
- Adj. EPS guidance is $1.23 (midpoint), up +43% YoY.
- The company is coming off a very strong Q2 2025, which itself was a record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and margin.
- Key factors to watch are the sustainability of organic growth (ex-M&A), incremental margin flow-through, execution on IGT/gas turbine ramp, spares mix, and integration of recent acquisitions (CAM, Brunner).
- Management commentary highlights robust demand in commercial aero, defense, and gas turbines, but notes macro/geopolitical risks (notably Iran conflict, inflation, and supply chain).
- Consensus is closely aligned with company guidance, so any deviation will be scrutinized.
Q2 2026 Guidance vs. Consensus
Q2 2026 Guidance Table
| Metric | Guidance Range | Midpoint | Consensus | YoY Growth vs. Q2 2025 Actuals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $2,390–$2,410 | $2,400 | $2,428 | +24% |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $760–$770 | $765 | $772 | +37% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 31.8–32.0% | 31.9% | 36.98%* | +310 bps |
| Adj. EPS ($) | $1.22–$1.24 | $1.23 | $1.24 | +43% |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $1,700–$1,800 (FY) |
*Consensus margin appears overstated; company guidance is for ~32%.
Q2 2025 Actuals (Restated)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual (Restated) |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,942 |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $560 |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 28.8% |
| Adj. EPS ($) | $0.86 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $344 |
FY 2026 Guidance (as of Q1 2026)
| Metric | Guidance Range | Midpoint | Prior Guidance (Q4 2025) | Change vs. Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $9,575–$9,725 | $9,650 | $9,100 | +$550M |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $3,025–$3,095 | $3,060 | $2,760 | +$300M |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 31.6–31.8% | 31.7% | 30.3% | +140 bps |
| Adj. EPS ($) | $4.88–$5.00 | $4.94 | $4.45 | +$0.49 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $1,700–$1,800 | $1,750 | $1,600 | +$150M |
Segment Performance — Q1 2026 (Most Recent Actuals)
| Segment | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Adj. EBITDA ($M) | Adj. EBITDA Margin | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engine Products | $1,253 | +29% | $458 | 36.6% | Strong growth in commercial aero, defense, IGT; 235 net headcount added for ramp |
| Fastening Systems | $471 | +14% | $150 | 31.8% | Growth in commercial aero, defense; CAM/Brunner to add further in Q2+ |
| Engineered Structures | $294 | -3% | $66 | 22.4% | Product rationalization, margin focus |
| Forged Wheels | $295 | +17% | $90 | 30.5% | Volumes down, offset by price/mix/aluminum |
What to Watch for in Q2 2026
1. Organic Growth vs. M&A
- Q2 2026 revenue guidance includes ~$275M from CAM/Brunner acquisitions.
- Organic growth ex-M&A is guided at +14% for FY 2026 (up from +10% prior).
- Investors will focus on underlying demand trends, especially in Engine Products and Fastening Systems.
