Linde plc (LIN) — Earnings Preview Memo
Key Factors to Watch for Next Earnings
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| EPS Guidance | FY2026 guidance: $17.60–$17.90 (7%–9% YoY growth); Q2 2026: $4.40–$4.50 (8%–10% YoY growth) |
| Revenue Growth | Consensus FY2026: $35,915M (+6% YoY); Q2 2026: $8,995M (+8% YoY) |
| Margin Expansion | Management expects full-year 2026 adjusted operating margin to be at the upper end or above 40–60 bps range |
| Volume Trends | Americas and APAC showing positive base volume; EMEA remains a drag |
| Helium Business | Recent supply shocks; any incremental price/volume is upside to current guide |
| Project Backlog | Sale of gas backlog at $7.1B in Q1 2026; management expects higher by year-end, possibly $8B+ |
| Commercial Space/Aerospace | Double-digit growth; potential to reach $1B+ sales by decade-end; watch for segment breakout |
| M&A/Bolt-on Acquisitions | Ongoing roll-ups, especially in Americas; 9 bolt-ons signed in Q1 2026 |
| CapEx | FY2026 expected: $5.0B–$5.5B; supports growth and maintenance, including project backlog |
| FX Impact | 1% tailwind assumed for FY2026; Q1 2026 saw 5% FX benefit |
Summary and Conclusions
- Linde enters its next earnings with strong momentum: Q1 2026 adjusted EPS grew +10% YoY, and management raised the lower end of FY2026 EPS guidance.
- Key focus areas: Margin expansion, volume recovery in EMEA, execution on project backlog, and the impact of helium market dynamics.
- Comparables: Linde is coming off a solid FY2025 (+6% adj. EPS YoY), but with a challenging industrial macro backdrop, especially in Europe.
- Consensus expectations: Revenue and EPS growth are expected to accelerate in FY2026, with consensus above management’s midpoint guidance.
- Watch for: Any upside from helium pricing/volumes, new electronics/space contracts, and signs of industrial recovery in EMEA.
Recent Actuals vs. Consensus
Quarterly Results — Actuals vs. Consensus
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Adj. EPS | Revenue Consensus ($M) | EPS Consensus | YoY Revenue Growth | YoY Adj. EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 8,781 | 4.33 | 8,601 | +8% | +10% | |
| Q4 2025 | 8,764 | 4.20 | 8,647 | +6% | +6% | |
| Q3 2025 | 8,615 | 4.21 | 8,616 | +3% | +7% | |
| Q2 2025 | 8,495 | 4.09 | 8,378 | +3% | +6% | |
| Q1 2025 | 8,112 | 3.95 | 8,251 | +3% | +6% |
Note: Consensus figures are not actuals; actuals are from company filings.
Annual Results — Actuals vs. Consensus
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | Adj. EPS | Revenue Consensus ($M) | EPS Consensus | YoY Revenue Growth | YoY Adj. EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34,000 | 16.46 | 33,869 | +3% | +6% | |
| 2024 | 33,210 |
Forward-Looking Consensus and Guidance
FY2026 Guidance and Consensus
| Metric | Company Guidance (May 2026) | Consensus Estimate | YoY Growth (Guidance) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 35,915 | +6% | Consensus above FY2025 actuals | |
| Adj. EPS | $17.60–$17.90 | 16.44 | +7% to +9% | Guidance assumes 1% FX tailwind |
| CapEx ($M) | $5,000–$5,500 | For growth and maintenance | ||
| Operating Margin | "Upper end or above" 40–60 bps expansion | Management expects strong margin expansion |
Q2 2026 Guidance
| Metric | Company Guidance (May 2026) | Consensus Estimate | YoY Growth (Guidance) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 8,995 | +8% | Consensus above Q2 2025 actuals | |
| Adj. EPS | $4.40–$4.50 | 4.13 | +8% to +10% | Guidance includes 1% FX tailwind |
How Did They Report Last Year? (FY2025)
- Revenue: $34,000M (+3% YoY)
- Adjusted EPS: $16.46 (+6% YoY)
- Operating Margin: 29.8% (+30 bps YoY)
- Operating Cash Flow: $10,400M (+10% YoY)
- Project Backlog: $10B at year-end- Return on Capital: 24.2%
- Shareholder Returns: $7.4B returned via dividends and buybacks Context: FY2025 was marked by continued industrial softness, especially in EMEA, but Linde delivered record EPS, cash flow, and margins. The company faced a tough macro, particularly in traditional industrial markets, but benefited from strength in electronics, commercial space, and disciplined capital allocation.
Are They Coming Off a Tough Y/Y Comparable?
- Yes, but with caveats: FY2025 saw resilient performance despite weak industrial demand, especially in Europe. The company delivered +6% adj. EPS growth, but this was achieved through margin expansion, cost actions, and growth in secular markets (electronics, space), rather than broad-based volume recovery.
- Volume comps: Base volumes were flat to slightly positive in Americas and APAC, but negative in EMEA. The company is now lapping several years of stagnant industrial activity, which could make for easier comps if industrial recovery materializes in 2026.
- Helium: The helium business was a headwind in 2025 (1%–2% EPS drag), but recent supply shocks may provide upside in 2026.
Key Management Commentary and Intra-Quarter Signals
- Margin Expansion: Management expects to exceed the traditional 40–60 bps margin expansion range in FY2026.
- Volume Trends: Americas and APAC are seeing positive base volume trends; EMEA remains weak, with no near-term catalyst.
- Helium: Recent supply shocks (Strait of Hormuz, Russia) have created global shortages. Linde is well positioned due to diversified sourcing and high contract coverage (85%–90%). Any incremental price/volume is upside to current guidance.
- Project Backlog: Sale of gas backlog at $7.1B in Q1 2026; management expects to add large electronics contracts and potentially reach $8B+ by year-end.
- Commercial Space: Double-digit growth continues; management is confident in reaching $1B+ sales by decade-end, with potential for earlier segment breakout if launch cadence accelerates.
- CapEx: $5.0B–$5.5B planned for FY2026, supporting both maintenance and growth, including commercial space infrastructure.
- M&A: Ongoing bolt-on acquisitions, especially in Americas; 9 signed in Q1 2026.
- FX: 1% tailwind assumed for FY2026; Q1 2026 saw a 5% FX benefit, which may provide further upside if spot rates hold.
