Chevron (CVX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points
- Consensus expects a sharp rebound in Q2 2026: Revenue is forecast at $59,679M (+41% QoQ, +31% YoY), EBITDA at $22,185M (+117% QoQ, +134% YoY), and net income at $10,299M (+454% QoQ, +176% YoY). This reflects expectations for a significant recovery from a weak Q1 2026, driven by higher commodity prices, normalization of working capital, and strong operational momentum.
- Q1 2026 was a tough comparable: Reported revenue was $47,556M, net income $2,211M, and adjusted earnings $2,793M. Q1 was impacted by $3B in unfavorable timing effects (inventory and derivatives), working capital outflows, and legal reserves. These are expected to reverse in Q2.
- Production growth remains robust: Q1 2026 production was 3,858 MBOED (+15% YoY), with U.S. production over 2 million BOED for the third consecutive quarter. Guidance for 2026 is unchanged at 7–10% production growth YoY, excluding asset sales.
- Margin and cash flow inflection expected: Management has guided for a release of working capital in H2, normalization of timing effects, and continued cost discipline. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to improve sharply from Q1’s $4.1B.
- Strategic priorities unchanged: Dividend growth, capital discipline, and buybacks ($2.5–3.0B/quarter) remain core. The company is on track for $3–4B in structural cost reductions by year-end.
- Watch for updates on power business and Venezuela: Chevron announced a major 2.7 GW West Texas power project with Microsoft, targeting mid-teens returns and FID by year-end. Venezuela asset expansion and debt recovery are progressing, with full repayment expected by 2027.
Most Important Factors to Watch in Q2 2026
| Factor | What to Watch For | Context/Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue & EBITDA | Rebound to $59.7B revenue, $22.2B EBITDA consensus; normalization of timing effects | Q1 was depressed by $3B in timing effects; Q2 should see reversal as physical cargoes deliver |
| Net Income & EPS | Consensus $10.3B net income, $5.35 EPS; compare to $2.2B/$1.11 in Q1 | Expect sharp sequential improvement |
| Production Volumes | Continued growth, target 7–10% YoY for FY26; Q1 was 3,858 MBOED | Full-year guidance unchanged; Q2 should benefit from TCO, Permian, Gulf of America ramp-ups |
| Free Cash Flow | Adjusted FCF expected to rebound from $4.1B in Q1 | Working capital release and higher prices should drive improvement |
| Working Capital Movements | Reversal of Q1 outflows; management expects H2 release | Q1 saw $4.6B outflow due to price spike and inventory build |
| Affiliate Distributions | TCO monthly dividends, CPChem/Angola LNG contributions; guidance raised by $2B+ for Q2 | Higher oil prices and operational momentum |
| Downstream Margins | Impact of higher equity crude throughput, integration synergies | Management highlighted >50% equity crude in US refineries, >40% in Asia |
| Cost Discipline | Progress toward $3–4B structural cost reduction target by year-end | $1.5B delivered in 2025, $2B run-rate at end of Q4 |
| Power Business Update | Details on Microsoft West Texas project, FID timeline, capital allocation | 2.7 GW, mid-teens returns, platform for future growth |
| Venezuela Asset/Receivables | Progress on debt recovery, production growth, fiscal terms | Receivables expected fully paid by 2027; asset swap expands Orinoco position |
Quarterly Financials — Actuals and Consensus
Quarterly Results and Consensus (Q1 2025–Q2 2026)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Cash Flow/Share ($) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026E | 59,679 | 22,185 | 10,299 | 5.35 | 8.96 | Consensus estimate |
| Q1 2026A | 47,556 | 10,198 | 2,211 | 1.11 | 3.43 | Actual, impacted by timing effects |
| Q4 2025A | 45,787 | 10,761 | 2,770 | 1.39 | 4.64 | Actual |
| Q3 2025A | 48,169 | 10,909 | 3,539 | 1.82 | 4.43 | Actual |
| Q2 2025A | 44,375 | 9,466 | 2,490 | 1.45 | 4.38 | Actual |
| Q1 2025A | 46,101 | 10,145 | 3,500 | 2.00 | 4.25 | Actual |
Note: Q2 2026 consensus figures are not actuals; actuals will be reported at the next earnings.
Year-Over-Year Comparison: Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2026E
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026E Consensus | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 44,375 | 59,679 | +34% |
| EBITDA ($M) | 9,466 | 22,185 | +134% |
| Net Income ($M) | 2,490 | 10,299 | +314% |
| EPS ($) | 1.45 | 5.35 | +269% |
Q2 2026 Preview: Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 is expected to show a dramatic sequential and YoY improvement after a weak Q1 2026, which was impacted by $3B in negative timing effects (inventory/derivatives), working capital outflows, and legal reserves.
- Consensus expects revenue to rebound to $59.7B (+34% YoY, +25% QoQ), with EBITDA and net income also sharply higher. This is driven by:
- Normalization of timing effects as physical cargoes deliver and mark-to-market reverses - Higher average Brent prices ($81 in Q1, likely higher in Q2)
- Strong production growth from Hess integration, TCO, Permian, and Gulf of America - Improved downstream margins and higher equity crude throughput - Working capital release in H2, with some benefit possible in Q2- Key focus areas for the call:
- Confirmation of reversal of Q1 timing effects and working capital normalization - Updated guidance on production, cost savings, and affiliate distributions - Progress on the Microsoft West Texas power project (FID, returns, capital allocation)
- Venezuela asset performance, debt recovery, and fiscal terms - Downstream and chemicals margin capture, especially given tight global markets- 2025 was a tough comparable: Q2 2025 was impacted by lower crude prices and negative special items, but Q1 2026 was even weaker due to unique timing effects. Q2 2026 is set up for a strong rebound, making the YoY comp less challenging than the sequential comp.
- Strategic priorities remain unchanged: Dividend growth (39th consecutive year), capital discipline, and steady buybacks ($2.5–3.0B/quarter) are reiterated. Structural cost reduction target of $3–4B by year-end is on track.
