ConocoPhillips (COP) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points and Preview Table
| Factor | Details & What to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue & EPS Consensus | Q2 2026 consensus: Revenue $19,353M, EPS $2.82; compare to Q2 2025 actual revenue $14,890M, EPS $1.34 (GAAP). Expect strong YoY growth, but note Q2 2025 was a relatively soft comp due to lower realized prices and higher costs. |
| Production Guidance | Full-year 2026 guidance: 2.295–2.325 MMBOED (updated for Qatar/Saumont impacts). Q2 2026 guidance: 2.185–2.215 MMBOED (excludes Qatar). Q1 2026 actual: 2,309 MBOED. Watch for any further adjustments due to Middle East conflict or Surmont royalties. |
| Capital Expenditures | FY26 guidance: $12–$12.5B (raised from prior $12B midpoint due to incremental Permian activity and macro uncertainty). Q1 2026 actual: $2.9B. Monitor for updates on Permian rig additions and NFE/NFS timing. |
| Operating Cost Guidance | FY26 guidance unchanged at $10.2B (down $400M YoY). Q1 2026 OpEx tracking ahead of plan; watch for possible downward revision. |
| Free Cash Flow & Returns | Management expects peer-leading FCF growth, reiterates 45% of CFO to shareholders in 2026. Q1 2026: $2B returned. Watch for commentary on FCF inflection and capital returns. |
| LNG/Willow Project Updates | Willow 50% complete, on track for early 2029 first oil. NFE/NFS construction progressing despite Middle East conflict; Port Arthur LNG first LNG expected 2027. Watch for any schedule/cost updates. |
| Macro/Commodity Sensitivity | Management sees higher mid-cycle WTI floor post-conflict; unhedged oil/LNG exposure provides upside. Monitor for updated macro commentary and price sensitivities. |
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 is set up for strong YoY growth in revenue and EPS, with consensus expecting $19.4B revenue (+30% YoY) and $2.82 EPS (vs. $1.34 Q2 2025 GAAP EPS). The YoY comp is relatively easy due to lower realized prices and higher costs in Q2 2025.
- Production guidance has been adjusted for the exclusion of Qatar (due to Middle East conflict) and higher Surmont royalties. Q2 2026 production is guided to 2.185–2.215 MMBOED, with full-year 2026 at 2.295–2.325 MMBOED.
- Capital spending is now guided to $12–$12.5B for 2026, up slightly from the prior $12B midpoint, reflecting incremental Permian activity and macro/LNG project timing uncertainty.
- Operating costs are tracking better than plan; management remains confident in achieving $1B run-rate savings by year-end, with potential for further downward revision to guidance.
- Key projects (Willow, LNG) remain on track, with Willow at 50% completion and NFE/NFS construction progressing despite regional disruptions.
- Management continues to emphasize capital discipline, operational efficiency, and shareholder returns, with a 45% CFO return target reiterated for 2026.
Recent Actuals vs. Prior Year
Quarterly Financials — Actuals
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) | Production (MBOED) | CapEx ($M) | OpEx ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 16,225 | 2,068 | 1.70 | 2,309 | 2,900 | |
| Q4 2025 | 13,078 | 1,404 | 1.14 | 2,320 | 3,000 |
