CrowdStrike (CRWD) Earnings Preview — Q2 FY2027
Key Preview Takeaways
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 Guidance | Revenue: $1,436M–$1,442M; Net new ARR: $284M–$286M; Non-GAAP Op Inc: $346M–$349M; EPS: $1.16–$1.17 |
| Full-Year FY27 Guidance | Revenue: $5,915M–$5,959M; Net new ARR: $1,279M–$1,303M; Non-GAAP Op Inc: $1,452M–$1,480M; EPS: $4.88–$4.96 |
| Consensus for Q2 FY27 | Revenue: $1,440M; Gross Margin: 78.5%; EBITDA: $426M; Net Income: $303M; EPS (GAAP): $0.02 |
| Key KPIs to Watch | Net new ARR growth, module adoption rates, Flex/re-Flex momentum, AIDR pipeline, cloud/identity/SIEM ARR |
| YoY Comparable | Q2 FY26 revenue: $1,150M; net new ARR: $221M; strong acceleration in Q2 FY27 guidance vs. prior year |
| Recent Momentum | Q1 FY27 net new ARR +32% YoY; full-year net new ARR guidance raised by +520 bps; Q2 pipeline at record high |
| AI Security Tailwind | Management expects AI adoption to drive incremental security spend and structural demand |
| Flex Model Adoption | Flex ARR nearly doubled YoY in Q1; re-Flex rate and uplift accelerating |
Most Important Factors for Q2 FY27 Earnings
| Factor | What to Watch / Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Net New ARR Growth | Guidance for Q2: $284M–$286M (+28–29% YoY); Q1 delivered +32% YoY; signals structural demand from AI adoption |
| Revenue Growth | Q2 guidance: $1,436M–$1,442M (+23% YoY); consensus: $1,440M; sequential acceleration expected |
| Module Adoption | Q1: 51% of customers with 6+ modules, 35% with 7+, 25% with 8+; continued expansion is a key platform signal |
| Flex/Re-Flex Dynamics | Q1: $1.9B Flex ARR (+99% YoY), 480 re-Flex customers (25% of Flex base), avg. uplift 26%, multi-re-Flex 51% |
| AIDR (AI Detection & Response) | Q1: ARR +250% QoQ, Q2 pipeline >$50M; management sees AIDR as a larger TAM than EDR |
| Cloud, Identity, SIEM ARR | Combined Q1 ending ARR >$2B; Next-Gen SIEM >$600M; cloud security and identity both accelerating |
| Free Cash Flow Margin | Q2 guide: 24.5% (seasonally lowest); FY27 at least 30%; Q1 delivered 34% |
| Retention Rates | Q1: Gross retention 97%, net retention 115%; durability at scale is a key differentiator |
| AI Security Demand | Management commentary highlights "Mythos moment" as inflection point; watch for incremental AI-driven spend |
Recent Results and Year-over-Year Comparables
Quarterly Financials — Actuals
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Net New ARR ($M) | YoY Revenue Growth | Non-GAAP Op Inc ($M) | Non-GAAP EPS | Free Cash Flow ($M) | Gross Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 | 1,386 | 256 | +26% | 326 | $1.10 | 468 | 79 (81 sub GM) |
| Q4 FY26 | 1,305 | 331 | +23% | 326 | $1.12 | 376 | 79 (81 sub GM) |
| Q3 FY26 | 1,234 | 265 | +22% | 265 | $0.96 | 296 | 78 (81 sub GM) |
| Q2 FY26 | 1,169 | 221 | +21% | 255 | $0.93 | 284 | 78 (80 sub GM) |
| Q1 FY26 | 1,105 | 194 | +22% | 201 | $0.73 | 279 | 78 (80 sub GM) |
*sub GM = subscription gross margin
Annual Financials — Actuals
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | Net New ARR ($M) | YoY Revenue Growth | Non-GAAP Op Inc ($M) | Non-GAAP EPS | Free Cash Flow ($M) | Gross Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 | 4,812 | 1,010 | +22% | 1,046 | $3.73 | 1,235 | 78 (81 sub GM) |
| FY25 | 3,954 | 808 | +19% | 880 | $3.24 | 1,065 | 78 (80 sub GM) |
Guidance Summary
Q2 FY27 Guidance
| Metric | Guidance Range | YoY Growth (Midpoint) | Consensus | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 1,436 – 1,442 | +23% | 1,440 | Sequential acceleration expected |
| Net New ARR ($M) | 284 – 286 | +28–29% | Q1 actual: 256M (+32% YoY) | |
| Non-GAAP Op Income ($M) | 346 – 349 | |||
| Non-GAAP Net Income ($M) | 301 – 303 | |||
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.16 – $1.17 | $0.02* | *Consensus is GAAP EPS | |
| Free Cash Flow Margin (%) | 24.5 | Seasonally lowest quarter | ||
| Weighted Avg Shares (M, diluted) | 258 |
Full-Year FY27 Guidance (as of Q1 print)
| Metric | Guidance Range | YoY Growth (Midpoint) | Prior Guide | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 5,915 – 5,959 | +23–24% | 5,868–5,928 | Raised on Q1 outperformance |
| Net New ARR ($M) | 1,279 – 1,303 | +27–29% | 1,213–1,264 | Raised by $52M, +520 bps at midpoint |
| Non-GAAP Op Income ($M) | 1,452 – 1,480 | 1,422–1,462 | ||
| Non-GAAP Net Income ($M) | 1,263 – 1,285 | 1,241–1,271 | ||
| Non-GAAP EPS | $4.88 – $4.96 | $4.78–$4.90 | ||
| Free Cash Flow Margin (%) | ≥30 | ≥30 | ||
| Weighted Avg Shares (M, diluted) | 259 | 260 |
How Did They Report Last Year? Are They Coming Off a Tough Comparable?
- Q2 FY26: Revenue $1,169M (+21% YoY), net new ARR $221M, non-GAAP op income $255M, non-GAAP EPS $0.93, free cash flow $284M (24% margin).
- Q2 FY27 Guidance: Revenue midpoint $1,439M (+23% YoY), net new ARR midpoint $285M (+29% YoY).
- Comparison: Q2 FY27 is coming off a strong but not unusually tough comparable. The YoY growth rates are accelerating, especially in net new ARR, reflecting a step-up in demand, particularly from AI-driven security needs.
- Q1 FY27: Already showed acceleration: revenue +26% YoY, net new ARR +32% YoY, free cash flow margin 34%.
Management Commentary and Intra-Quarter Color
- AI Security Tailwind: Management repeatedly emphasizes that AI adoption is driving incremental, not just reallocated, security spend. The "Mythos moment" (April 2026) is cited as an inflection point for demand.
- Flex Model: Now the standard go-to-market model; Flex ARR nearly doubled YoY in Q1; re-Flex rates and uplifts are accelerating.
- AIDR: Management expects AIDR to be a larger opportunity than EDR, with Q1 ARR up 250% QoQ and Q2 pipeline already exceeding $50M.
- Module Adoption: Continues to rise, with 51% of customers using 6+ modules in Q1 FY27.
- Retention: Gross retention 97%, net retention 115% in Q1 FY27, showing best-in-class durability at scale.
- Cloud, Identity, SIEM: Combined ARR >$2B in Q1 FY27, all segments accelerating.
- Free Cash Flow: Q1 FY27 delivered 34% margin; Q2 guided to 24.5% (seasonally lowest), FY27 at least 30%.
- Federal Opportunity: Executive order on AI security seen as a tailwind for federal business.
Summary and Conclusions
- Expectations for Q2 FY27 are high, with guidance and consensus both calling for sequential acceleration in revenue and net new ARR, driven by AI security demand and Flex model adoption.
- Year-over-year comparables are not unusually tough, but the company is guiding to higher growth rates than last year, reflecting confidence in structural demand tailwinds.
- Key factors to watch: Net new ARR growth, module adoption, Flex/re-Flex momentum, AIDR pipeline, and continued strength in cloud, identity, and SIEM ARR.
- Management has raised full-year guidance for both revenue and net new ARR, citing a record Q2 pipeline and broad-based demand.
- AI security is now a core growth driver, with management positioning CrowdStrike as critical infrastructure for enterprise AI adoption.
- Durability of growth and profitability is supported by high retention rates, expanding margins, and strong free cash flow generation.
Bottom line: CrowdStrike enters Q2 FY27 with strong momentum, accelerating growth, and raised guidance. The most important factors for the upcoming report are net new ARR growth, AI-driven demand signals, Flex model expansion, and continued execution on platform adoption and profitability. The company is not facing a particularly tough YoY comp, but expectations are elevated given recent acceleration and management's bullish outlook.
