Goldman Sachs (GS) — Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Preview Table: What to Watch for in Q3 2026
| Factor / Metric | Q3 2026 Consensus* | Q3 2025 Actual | YoY Comp | Q2 2026 Actual | Sequential Trend | Key Watch Items / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $17,417 | $14,250 | +22% | $20,338 | -15% | Coming off record Q2; tough sequential comp, easier YoY |
| Net Income ($M) | $4,802 | $3,454 | +39% | $6,628 | -27% | Margin expansion YoY, but Q2 was a high watermark |
| EPS (GAAP) | $15.39 | $11.09 | +39% | $20.98 | -27% | EPS at record levels in Q2; can GS sustain? |
| Gross Profit Margin (%) | 80 | 72 | +800 bps | Margin expansion expected | ||
| Book Value Per Share ($) | $367.67 | +1.8% QoQ | Steady book value growth | |||
| Annualized ROE (%) | 23.5 | +400 bps YoY | ROE at multi-year highs | |||
| Segment: Global Banking & Markets | $15,520 | +22% QoQ | Record Q2; watch for deal activity, financing | |||
| Segment: Asset & Wealth Mgmt | $4,597 | +13% QoQ | Strong flows, margin improvement | |||
| Segment: Platform Solutions | $221 | -46% QoQ | Apple Card wind-down, muted impact |
*Consensus from provided data; actuals will be reported at Q3 earnings.
Summary and Conclusions
- Goldman Sachs enters Q3 2026 earnings coming off a record Q2, with revenue of $20.34B (+39% YoY), net income of $6.63B (+78% YoY), and EPS of $20.98 (+92% YoY).
- Consensus for Q3 2026 is for revenue of $17.42B and EPS of $15.39, both up strongly YoY but down sequentially from Q2’s record levels.
- The YoY comparable is favorable: Q3 2025 was a solid quarter, but the current environment is much stronger, with GS benefiting from robust M&A, capital markets, and AI-driven financing cycles.
- Key focus areas for Q3: sustainability of Equities and FICC outperformance, continued strength in M&A/advisory, Asset & Wealth Management flows and margins, and expense discipline amid high activity levels.
- Management has flagged that Q3 will see higher non-comp expenses (by $500M+ sequentially), a more muted investments line, and slightly higher provisions, but expects equity business to remain very strong and FICC to be softer relative to Q2.
- GS is guiding for continued high activity, but notes that the current environment is exceptional and not all drivers are likely to persist at peak levels.
Q3 2026 Preview: Most Important Factors
1. Sustainability of Record Results
- Q2 2026 set all-time highs for revenue, EPS, and ROE. The key question is whether GS can maintain this momentum or if Q2 represents a cyclical peak.
- Management has already indicated that some lines (notably investments and non-comp expenses) will normalize in Q3.
2. Equities and FICC Performance
- Equities revenues were up 72% YoY in Q2, driven by global prime brokerage, Asia expansion, and AI-related capital formation.
- FICC also delivered strong results (+32% YoY), with broad-based strength in rates, commodities, and financing.
- Watch for any signs of normalization or pullback, especially as management noted FICC is running softer relative to equities intra-quarter.
3. Investment Banking Backlog and M&A Activity
- Advisory backlog reached a 5-year high in Q2, with GS extending its #1 M&A position and leading in IPOs and leveraged finance.
- Large-cap corporate M&A volumes are up 90% YTD; the pipeline remains robust.
- Monitor for continued replenishment of backlog and conversion to revenue.
4. Asset & Wealth Management Flows and Margins
- AWM delivered 20% YoY revenue growth in Q2, with record management fees and strong net inflows.
- Alternatives fundraising was a record $59B in Q2; full-year expected to exceed $125B.
- Margin improvement and incentive fee recognition are key watch items.
5. Expense Discipline and Efficiency Ratio
- Q2 efficiency ratio improved to 58.8% YTD (from 62.0% prior year).
- Management flagged higher non-comp expenses in Q3 due to transaction activity, tech investment, and charitable giving.
- Headcount declined 2% QoQ, reflecting productivity gains from tech/AI.
6. Capital Returns and Balance Sheet
- Dividend increased to $5.00/share in Q3; $4B in buybacks in Q2.
- CET1 ratio at 12.9%, with 150 bps buffer above requirement.
- Watch for continued aggressive capital return and deployment into client franchise.
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q3 2025)
| Metric | Q3 2025 Actual | YoY Growth vs. Q3 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $14,250 | +20% |
| Net Income ($M) | $3,454 | +39% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $11.09 | +39% |
| Book Value Per Share ($) | $353.79 | +6% |
| ROE (%) | 14.2 | +1.4pp |
- Q3 2025 was a strong quarter, with double-digit growth across revenue, net income, and EPS.
- The company benefited from higher investment banking fees, strong FICC and Equities, and record AWM flows.
- The YoY comp for Q3 2026 is thus solid, but the current environment is even stronger.
Quarterly Financial Trends (Actuals)
Quarterly Results: Q2 2025 – Q2 2026
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) | Book Value/Share ($) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $20,338 | $6,628 | $20.98 | $367.67 | 23.5 |
| Q1 2026 | $17,227 | $5,630 | $17.55 | $361.19 | 19.8 |
| Q4 2025 | $13,454 | $4,617 | $14.01 | $357.60 | 16.0 |
| Q3 2025 | $14,250 | $3,454 | $11.09 | $353.79 | 14.2 |
| Q2 2025 | $14,583 | $3,723 | $10.91 | $349.74 | 13.2 |
Guidance and Management Commentary
Intra-Quarter and Forward-Looking Commentary
- Q3 2026 Guidance/Color (Barclays Conference, Sep 2026):
- "Equity business continues to be very strong. On a relative basis, FICC has been a little bit softer... overall level of activities have been very, very high."
- "Investors should expect our non-comp expenses to run more than $500 million higher sequentially."
- "On our investments line, expect a much more muted third quarter after there was significant activity in the second quarter."
- "Loan portfolio is in good shape... but we had a couple of idiosyncratic things that would lead provisions to be slightly higher this quarter than they were in the same quarter last year."
- Full-Year 2026 Outlook:
- Management continues to target high single-digit revenue growth in Asset & Wealth Management, 30% margins, and high teens returns.
- Alternatives fundraising expected to exceed $125B for the year.
- Capital returns (dividends, buybacks) remain a priority, with flexibility to deploy capital into client franchise or return to shareholders.
What to Watch for in Q3 2026 Earnings
- Can GS sustain record Equities and FICC performance, or will there be normalization?
- Will M&A/advisory and underwriting pipelines continue to convert at high rates, given record backlogs?
- Are Asset & Wealth Management flows and margins tracking to new targets, and is incentive fee recognition accelerating?
- How are expenses trending, especially non-compensation costs, and is the efficiency ratio holding below 60%?
- Is capital being deployed into growth opportunities, or is excess capital being returned to shareholders?
- Any signs of credit deterioration or provisioning spikes, especially in light of higher loan growth and select idiosyncratic credits?
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs is coming off an exceptionally strong Q2 2026, with record results across most metrics. The Q3 2026 consensus expects continued strong YoY growth, but sequential moderation from Q2’s peak. The most important factors to watch are the sustainability of Equities and FICC outperformance, the conversion of record investment banking backlog, Asset & Wealth Management flows and margins, expense discipline, and capital deployment. Management has flagged higher non-comp expenses and a more muted investments line for Q3, but expects equity business to remain strong and FICC to be softer. The YoY comp is favorable, but the sequential comp is challenging given the high base. Investors should focus on the durability of the current cycle, the ability to convert backlog to revenue, and the ongoing execution of GS’s strategy to drive more durable, higher-margin earnings.
