NIKE, Inc. (NKE) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q4 FY2026
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue Trend | Consensus: $10,846M (-3% YoY); Guidance: Q4 revenue down 2–4% YoY; North America up modestly, China down ~20% |
| Gross Margin | Consensus: 39.9%; Guidance: Q4 gross margin down 25–75 bps YoY, including -250 bps from tariffs |
| EPS | Consensus: $0.12; Guidance: "earnings to be flattish" YoY |
| Segment Performance | North America: modest growth; Greater China: ~-20% YoY; EMEA: likely mid-single-digit decline |
| Inventory & Sell-Through | Focus on inventory normalization, especially in EMEA and China; watch for commentary on sell-through trends |
| Sportswear & Classics Reset | Progress on stabilizing Air Force 1, AJ1; Dunk still being managed down; green shoots in new launches |
| Wholesale vs. Direct | Wholesale expected to grow; NIKE Direct (esp. Digital) remains under pressure |
| Cost Actions | Impact of $230M severance in Q3; further supply chain cost actions possible |
| Macro/Geopolitical Risks | Management flags Middle East disruption, oil prices, consumer behavior as potential volatility factors |
| Investor Day | Expectation for full-year and long-term guidance to be reinstated at Investor Day in Fall 2026 |
Q4 FY2026 Guidance Summary
| Metric | Guidance (Q4 FY26) | Context Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Down 2–4% YoY | Modest growth in North America; ~-20% in Greater China; declines in Converse; +2 pts FX benefit |
| Gross Margin | Down 25–75 bps YoY | Includes -250 bps from higher tariffs in North America; sequential improvement vs. Q3 |
| SG&A | Flat to down slightly YoY | Cost discipline; Q3 included $230M severance charge |
| Other Expense | $15M–$25M expense | Net of interest income |
| Tax Rate | Low 20% range | Consistent with prior quarters |
| Earnings | Flattish YoY | Margins to inflect positively in Q2 FY27 |
| Greater China Revenue | Down ~20% YoY | Reflects reduced sell-in and accelerated marketplace cleanup |
Forward Consensus Estimates (Q4 FY2026 and Next Quarters)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin (%) | EBITDA ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | 10,846 | 39.9 | 443 | 184 | 0.12 |
| Q1 FY2027 | 11,517 | 41.8 | 1,008 | 679 | 0.45 |
| Q2 FY2027 | 12,325 | 41.5 | 1,252 | 888 | 0.59 |
| Q3 FY2027 | 11,462 | 41.5 | 972 | 691 | 0.46 |
Source: Company consensus data. Figures rounded to nearest million.
Q4 FY2025 Actual Results (Prior-Year Comparable)
| Metric | Q4 FY2025 Actual | YoY Change vs. Q4 FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10,723M | -12% reported |
| Gross Margin | 40.3% | -440 bps |
| Net Income | $191M | |
| EPS | $0.14 |
Q4 FY2025 was a very tough comparable, with double-digit revenue and margin declines due to aggressive inventory cleanup and franchise resets.
Recent Quarterly Performance (FY2026 YTD)
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Gross Margin (%) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | 11,279 | 0% | 40.2 | 520 | 0.35 |
| Q2 FY2026 | 12,427 | +1% | 40.6 | 792 | 0.53 |
| Q1 FY2026 | 11,720 | +1% | 42.2 | 727 | 0.49 |
Segment Trends — Q3 FY2026
| Segment/Geo | Revenue YoY | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| North America | +3% | Running, football, basketball up; Sportswear down double digits; wholesale +11% |
| EMEA | -7% | Running up double digits; Sportswear down double digits; higher promotions, inventory elevated |
| Greater China | -10% | Running up double digits; Sportswear down double digits; pilot stores showing improvement |
| APLA | -2% | Running up double digits; Sportswear down double digits; mixed results by country |
| Converse | -35% | Undergoing reset; new leadership |
Management Commentary — Key Themes
- Win Now Actions Nearing Completion: Management expects to finish Win Now actions (inventory cleanup, portfolio reset, cost actions) by end of calendar 2026.
- North America Leading Recovery: North America is furthest along, with balanced growth expected across wholesale and direct channels.
- China Remains a Drag: Greater China revenue to be down ~20% in Q4; profitability expected to bottom sooner than revenue as inventory and discounting are addressed.
- Sportswear/Sneaker Franchise Reset: Air Force 1 and AJ1 stabilized; Dunk still being managed down; green shoots in new launches (e.g., Air Max 95, AJ11 Gamma).
- Margin Inflection Expected in FY27: Gross margin expansion expected to begin in Q2 FY27 as tariff mitigation and Win Now actions annualize.
- Cost Structure Reset: $230M severance charge in Q3; further supply chain cost actions possible; benefits expected from FY27 onward.
- Macro Risks: Management highlights potential volatility from geopolitical events, oil prices, and consumer behavior.
Summary and Conclusions
- Q4 FY2026 will be another transition quarter as NIKE completes its multi-quarter "Win Now" turnaround, with revenue expected down 2–4% YoY and gross margin pressured by tariffs.
- North America is expected to show modest growth, offset by significant declines in Greater China (~-20%) and continued weakness in Converse and Sportswear.
- Gross margin should see sequential improvement but remain below prior-year levels due to tariffs; margin inflection is expected in Q2 FY27.
- Inventory normalization and sell-through trends will be key focus areas, especially in EMEA and China.
- Management will provide a more detailed long-term outlook at Investor Day in Fall 2026.
- Year-over-year comparables are easier than last year’s Q4, which saw a -12% revenue decline, but the company is still lapping a period of heavy inventory cleanup and franchise resets.
- Key signals to watch: North America momentum, progress in China, Sportswear stabilization, margin trajectory, and commentary on cost actions and macro risks.
Upcoming Catalysts
- Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release: June 30, 2026
- Investor Day (Long-Term Guidance): Fall 2026
- World Cup Product Launches: Summer 2026
- Ongoing Franchise/Product Launches: Mind, Aero-FIT, Air Max, AJ11 Gamma, etc.
Bottom Line:
NIKE enters Q4 FY2026 with improving fundamentals in North America and performance categories, but faces ongoing headwinds in China, Sportswear, and from tariffs. The quarter will be watched closely for evidence that the "Win Now" actions are translating into sustainable, profitable growth as the company prepares to reintroduce long-term guidance later this year.
