Goldman Sachs (GS) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q2 2026
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Consensus: $15,777M (-8% QoQ, +7% YoY). Q1 2026 was a record quarter; Q2 faces a tough sequential comp. |
| Investment Banking Fees | Q1 2026: $2,840M (+48% YoY). Watch for continued strength in M&A/advisory and any signs of IPO/DCM acceleration. |
| Equities Revenue | Q1 2026: $5,326M (+27% YoY, record). Focus on durability of equity financing/intermediation, especially in Asia. |
| FICC Revenue | Q1 2026: $4,011M (-10% YoY). Monitor for stabilization or rebound in rates/mortgages after Q1 softness. |
| Asset & Wealth Management | Q1 2026: $4,078M (+10% YoY). Track management fees, net flows, lending NIM compression, and alternatives growth. |
| Efficiency Ratio | Q1 2026: 60.5% (flat YoY). Look for progress toward 60% target amid higher transaction-based expenses. |
| CET1 Ratio | Q1 2026: 12.5% (down from 14.3% Q4 2025). Watch for capital deployment, RWA growth, and buffer management. |
| Capital Returns | Q1 2026: $6.38B returned ($5B buybacks, $1.38B dividends). Expect continued aggressive capital return. |
| Guidance/Outlook | Management expects continued robust M&A, constructive capital markets, and high single-digit AWM durable revenue. |
| Macro/Regulatory Backdrop | Basel III finalization, G-SIB surcharge, and deregulation are tailwinds; watch for commentary on regulatory impact. |
Q2 2026 Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Consensus Estimate | QoQ Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $15,777 | -8% | +7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $4,209 | -25% | -1% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $13.78 | -22% | 0% |
Source: Visible Alpha consensus as of June 2026
Q1 2026 Actual Results (Most Recent Reported)
| Metric | Actual Q1 2026 | QoQ Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $17,227 | +28% | +14% |
| Net Income ($M) | $5,630 | +22% | +19% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $17.55 | +25% | +24% |
| ROE | 19.8% | +3.8pp | +2.9pp |
| Book Value/Share ($) | $361.19 | +1.0% | +5.0% |
| Efficiency Ratio | 60.5% | -11.8pp | -0.1pp |
| CET1 Ratio | 12.5% | -1.8pp | -1.8pp |
Q2 2025 Actual Results (Prior Year Comp)
| Metric | Actual Q2 2025 | QoQ Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $14,583 | -3% | +15% |
| Net Income ($M) | $3,723 | -21% | +22% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $10.91 | -23% | +27% |
| ROE | 12.8% | -4.1pp | +1.9pp |
Segment Performance — Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025
| Segment | Q1 2026 Revenue ($M) | YoY Change | Key Drivers / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Banking & Markets | $12,738 | +19% | Record quarter; strong M&A, equity financing, Asia focus |
| Asset & Wealth Mgmt | $4,078 | +10% | Management fees +14%, lending NIM headwind |
| Platform Solutions | $411 | -33% | Apple Card wind-down, lower revenues |
Asset & Wealth Management KPIs — Q1 2026
| Metric | Q1 2026 | YoY Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Management & Other Fees ($M) | $3,077 | +14% | Record, driven by higher AUS |
| Incentive Fees ($M) | $183 | +42% | Up YoY despite volatile environment |
| Private Banking & Lending ($M) | $638 | -12% | NIM compression, record lending balances |
| AUS ($B) | $3,650 | +15% | 33rd consecutive quarter of net inflows |
| Alternatives Fundraising ($B) | $26 | $10B in private credit |
Capital and Balance Sheet — Q1 2026
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CET1 Ratio | 12.5% | 14.3% | -1.8pp | RWA growth, capital deployment |
| Deposits ($B) | $561 | $501 | +$60B | Marcus, private bank, transaction banking |
| Buybacks ($B) | $5.00 | $3.00 | +$2.00 | Record buybacks |
| Dividend/Share ($) | $4.50 | $4.50 | Maintained |
Summary and Conclusions
Q2 2026 Preview:
- Tough Sequential Comp: Q1 2026 was a record quarter for GS, with revenue, EPS, and ROE at or near all-time highs. Q2 consensus expects a sequential decline in both revenue and earnings, but still solid YoY growth.
- Key Watch Areas:
- Investment Banking: M&A/advisory remains robust, but IPO and sponsor activity slowed in late Q1 due to macro/geopolitical volatility. Backlog remains at a 4-year high, suggesting continued strong deal flow.
- Equities: Record Q1 revenues, especially in financing (prime brokerage, Asia). Watch for sustainability of these levels and any normalization.
- FICC: Q1 saw weakness in rates/mortgages, offset by strength in commodities/currencies. Stabilization or rebound in these areas is a key signal.
- AWM: Durable revenue growth continues, but NIM compression in lending is a headwind. Alternatives fundraising remains strong, especially in private credit.
- Efficiency: Management is focused on driving the efficiency ratio toward 60% via One GS 3.0 and AI-driven process reengineering, but transaction-based expenses are elevated due to high activity.
- Capital Deployment: CET1 ratio dropped to 12.5% (from 14.3%) due to aggressive capital deployment and buybacks. Management is comfortable with a ~100bps buffer above requirements.
- Macro/Regulatory: Management is optimistic on the regulatory backdrop (Basel III, G-SIB, deregulation), which should support further capital flexibility and growth.
Last Year’s Q2 (Q2 2025):
- Revenue: $14,583M (+15% YoY)
- Net Income: $3,723M (+22% YoY)
- EPS: $10.91 (+27% YoY)
- ROE: 12.8%
- Q2 2025 was a strong quarter, but Q1 2026 set a much higher bar, making Q2 2026 a tough sequential comp.
Conclusion:
Goldman Sachs enters Q2 2026 coming off a record Q1, with high expectations embedded in consensus. The most important factors to watch are the durability of investment banking and equities revenue, the trajectory of FICC, progress on efficiency, and capital deployment strategy. Macro and regulatory tailwinds remain supportive, but market volatility and NIM compression in AWM are risks. The company’s backlog, capital flexibility, and secular growth in AWM and alternatives position it well, but investors will be focused on whether Q1’s strength can be sustained or if some normalization is likely in Q2.
Upcoming Catalysts
- Q2 2026 earnings report (expected July 2026)
- Commentary on M&A/IPO pipeline and backlog conversion
- Updates on AWM flows, alternatives fundraising, and lending penetration
- Progress on One GS 3.0/AI-driven efficiency initiatives
- Regulatory developments (Basel III, G-SIB, capital rules)
- Capital return actions (buybacks/dividends) and CET1 buffer management
Restated figures have been used where available. All consensus numbers are estimates, not actuals.
