Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points and Preview Table
| Factor | Details & What to Watch |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Consensus Revenue | $25,007M (rounded to nearest million) |
| Q2 2026 Consensus EPS | $2.43 |
| Guidance (as of Q1 2026) | FY26 reported sales $100.8B (midpoint, +7.0% YoY); adjusted EPS $11.55 (midpoint, +7.1% YoY) |
| Q1 2026 Actuals | Revenue $24,062M (+9.9% YoY), Adjusted EPS $2.70 (-2.5% YoY), Op sales growth +6.4%, Adj. op sales +5.3% |
| Q2 2025 Actuals | Revenue $22,861M, Adjusted EPS $2.77, Op sales growth +4.6%, Adj. op sales +3.0% |
| YoY Comparable | Q2 2025 was a relatively easy comp: lower growth, STELARA LOE headwind, but strong underlying momentum |
| Key KPIs to Watch |
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| Risks/Watch Areas |
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| Management Tone | Very bullish on double-digit growth by decade-end; Q2 expected to show acceleration vs. Q1 |
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 is expected to show accelerating growth versus Q1, with consensus revenue at $25,007M (+9.4% YoY vs. Q2 2025 actuals) and consensus EPS at $2.43.
- Q1 2026 was a strong start: Revenue grew +9.9% YoY, operational sales +6.4%, adjusted operational sales +5.3%. Ex-STELARA, underlying growth was double digits.
- 2025 was a "catapult year" with JNJ growing through the STELARA LOE, and management expects 2026 and 2027 to be even stronger.
- Guidance was raised in Q1: FY26 reported sales midpoint now $100.8B (+7.0% YoY), adjusted EPS midpoint $11.55 (+7.1% YoY). Management reaffirmed line of sight to double-digit growth by decade-end.
- Q2 2025 was a relatively easy comp (revenue $22,861M, adj. EPS $2.77, op sales +4.6%), so YoY growth rates in Q2 2026 should look robust.
- Key focus areas for Q2 2026: Uptake and ramp of new launches (ICOTYDE, INLEXZO, TECVAYLI+DARA, VARIPULSE Pro, TECNIS PureSee US), continued strong growth in core franchises (TREMFYA, DARZALEX, CARVYKTI, RYBREVANT, CAPLYTA), and MedTech execution (especially in cardiovascular and surgery).
- Margin progression: Q1 margins were down sequentially due to heavy launch investment; Q2 should see improvement as new launches scale and investments normalize.
- Risks: Continued STELARA erosion, China VBP, MedTech pricing pressure, and macro headwinds are being monitored, but management remains confident.
Q2 2026 Preview Table — Key Metrics
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Q2 2025 Actual | YoY Change (Consensus vs. Actual) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $25,007 | $22,861 | +9.4% |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.43 | $2.77 | -12.3% |
| Gross Profit Margin (%) | 73.1 | ||
| EBITDA ($M) | 8,279 | ||
| Net Income ($M) | 6,482 |
*Consensus figures are not actuals. Actuals for Q2 2026 will be reported at the next earnings release.
FY 2026 Guidance (as of Q1 2026)
| Metric | Guidance (Midpoint) | Prior Guidance (Jan 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported Sales ($B) | $100.8 | $100.5 | +$0.3B |
| Reported Sales Growth (%) | +7.0% | +6.7% | +0.3pp |
| Adjusted Operational Sales (%) | +6.1% | +5.9% | +0.2pp |
| Adjusted EPS | $11.55 | $11.53 | +$0.02 |
| Adjusted EPS Growth (%) | +7.1% | +6.9% | +0.2pp |
Q1 2026 Actuals vs. Q1 2025
| Metric | Q1 2026 Actual | Q1 2025 Actual | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $24,062 | $21,893 | +9.9% |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.70 | $2.77 | -2.5% |
| Operational Sales Growth | +6.4% | ||
| Adjusted Operational Sales | +5.3% |
Segment Highlights — Q1 2026
| Segment | Revenue ($M) | YoY Growth | Key Drivers/Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innovative Med | $15,426 | +11.2% | ICOTYDE, TREMFYA, INLEXZO, RYBREVANT, CAPLYTA, DARZALEX |
| MedTech | $8,636 | +7.7% | Cardiovascular (EP, Abiomed, Shockwave), Surgery, Vision |
What to Watch for in Q2 2026
1. ICOTYDE (icotrokinra) Launch Trajectory
- Approved March 2026 for plaque psoriasis; first patient dosed within 24 hours.
- Early metrics: 1,500+ patients prescribed, 1,000+ unique prescribers (April); now ~4,500 prescribers (June).
- Key: Watch for continued rapid uptake, payer access, DTC campaign impact, and early signals from prescriber mix (systemic-naive, oral switchers, biologic switchers).
2. TREMFYA Momentum in IBD
- Q1 2026: +64% sales growth, fastest-growing IL-23 in US, share leader in IBD new starts.
- Key: Continued share gains in UC/CD, impact of new data (FUZION trial, perianal fistulizing CD), and competitive dynamics as AbbVie launches subcu Skyrizi.
3. INLEXZO (bladder cancer) Uptake
- Outperforming all recent launches in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer.
- J-code received April 1, 2026: 50% increase in new patient insertions in week 1 post-J-code, 90% in week 2.
- Key: Monitor continued ramp, expansion into broader populations (SunRISe-5, SunRISe-3), and feedback from urology practices.
4. MedTech Execution
- Cardiovascular: EP (VARIPULSE Pro Europe launch, US submission), Abiomed (Impella), Shockwave (C2 Aero launch).
- Surgery: OTTAVA robotic system (FDA review, IDE for hernia), ETHICON 4000 stapler (US, EU launches).
- Vision: TECNIS PureSee US launch, premium IOL momentum, ACUVUE OASYS MAX family.
- Key: Watch for sequential acceleration in MedTech growth, especially in cardiovascular and vision.
5. Margin Progression
- Q1 2026 margins down due to heavy launch investment; Q2 expected to show improvement as launches scale.
- FY26 guidance: At least +50 bps improvement in adjusted pretax operating margin.
6. STELARA Erosion and Other Headwinds
- STELARA erosion continues but is now a smaller base; watch for impact on YoY growth rates.
- China VBP, MedTech pricing, macro headwinds, and integration of new launches remain risks.
Management Commentary and Tone
- Bullish on growth: Management repeatedly emphasizes confidence in double-digit growth by decade-end, driven by a derisked pipeline and portfolio.
- New launches: "ICOTYDE has the potential to be one of our largest products ever." INLEXZO, RYBREVANT, and MedTech platforms are also highlighted as underappreciated by The Street.
- MedTech: "We expect MedTech to accelerate from mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth as we move toward the end of the decade," with OTTAVA and MONARCH robotics as key future drivers.
- Margin discipline: Investments in new launches are front-loaded in 2026, but margin improvement is expected as the year progresses.
How Did They Report Last Year? (Q2 2025)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $22,861 |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.77 |
| Operational Sales Growth | +4.6% |
| Adjusted Operational Sales | +3.0% |
- Q2 2025 was a solid quarter but with lower growth than current run-rate, and included a significant STELARA headwind.
- Q2 2026 faces a relatively easy YoY comp, supporting robust reported growth rates.
Summary Table — Forward Consensus vs. Guidance
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | FY 2026 Guidance (Midpoint, Apr 2026) | Q2 2025 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $25,007 | $100,800 | $22,861 |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.43 | $11.55 | $2.77 |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | +9.4% | +7.0% | +6.0% (FY25) |
| Adjusted EPS Growth | -12.3% | +7.1% |
Conclusions
- Q2 2026 is set up for strong YoY growth on an easy comp, with consensus and guidance both implying robust top-line and bottom-line performance.
- Most important factors: Uptake of new launches (ICOTYDE, INLEXZO, TECVAYLI+DARA, VARIPULSE Pro, TECNIS PureSee US), continued strength in core franchises, MedTech acceleration, and margin improvement.
- Risks: STELARA erosion, China VBP, MedTech pricing, macro headwinds, and execution on new launches.
- Management is highly confident in both near-term and long-term growth, with multiple drivers across both Innovative Medicine and MedTech.
- Watch for: Sequential acceleration in MedTech, margin improvement, and updates on new product ramps and market access.
Next earnings report will be closely watched for:
- ICOTYDE and INLEXZO launch metrics and commentary
- TREMFYA IBD share and growth
- MedTech segment acceleration, especially in cardiovascular and vision
- Margin progression and cost discipline
- Updated guidance or commentary on FY26 outlook and double-digit growth trajectory
Restated figures have been used where available. All consensus numbers are estimates, not actuals.
