JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q2 2026
| Factor | Details & Signals to Watch |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Consensus: $48,588M (-1% QoQ, -1% YoY); compare to Q2 2025 actuals of $45,680M (managed). |
| Net Interest Income (NII) | Guidance: FY2026 NII ex Markets ~$95B; Q1 actual was $23,280M ex Markets. Monitor for trajectory vs. guide. |
| Markets Revenue | Q1 2026 record: $11,559M (+20% YoY). Q2 consensus expects normalization; watch for volatility or upside. |
| Expense Run Rate | Guidance: FY2026 adjusted expense ~$105B; Q1 actual $26,850M (high seasonality). Q2 run-rate key for guide. |
| Card Net Charge-Off Rate | Guidance: FY2026 ~3.4%. Q1 actual: 3.47%. Watch for any upward drift or signs of consumer stress. |
| Deposit Growth | Q1 2026: +7% YoY, +1% QoQ. Management expects low-to-mid single-digit growth for FY2026. |
| Loan Growth | Q1 2026: +11% YoY, +2% QoQ. Card loan growth expected at 6–7% for FY2026. |
| Investment Banking Fees | Q1 2026: +28% YoY. Pipeline described as "resilient." Watch for deal timing and sentiment shifts. |
| Asset & Wealth Management | AUM up 16% YoY in Q1; net inflows remain strong. Watch for continued momentum and margin sustainability. |
| Capital/Regulatory Updates | CET1 ratio Q1: 14.3%. Basel III/G-SIB rule impacts and management commentary on capital deployment. |
Q2 2026 Consensus vs. Prior Actuals
Quarterly Financials (Consensus vs. Actuals)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS ($) | Gross Profit Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026E | 48,588 | 14,852 | 5.43 | 2.45 | Consensus (FactSet, rounded) |
| Q1 2026A | 49,836 | 16,494 | 5.94 | 2.58 | Actual, reported |
| Q4 2025A | 45,798 | 13,025 | 4.63 | 2.54 | Actual, reported |
| Q2 2025A | 45,680 | 14,987 | 5.24 | 2.43 | Actual, managed basis |
Full-Year Guidance and Consensus
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance | FY2026 Consensus | FY2025 Actual (Managed) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 196,733 | 185,581 | |
| NII ex Markets ($B) | ~$95 | 92.6 | |
| Total NII ($B) | ~$103 | 95.9 | |
| Adjusted Expense ($B) | ~$105 | 95.6 | |
| Card NCO Rate (%) | ~3.4 | 3.31 (FY25 actual avg) |
Q2 2025 Actuals Recap (YoY Comparable)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual (Managed) | YoY Change vs. Q2 2024 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 45,680 | -10% | Visa gain in Q2 2024 base |
| Net Income ($M) | 14,987 | -17% | |
| EPS ($) | 5.24 | -14% | |
| NII ex Markets ($M) | 22,753 | -1% | |
| Markets Revenue ($M) | 8,936 | +15% | |
| Adjusted Expense ($M) | 23,779 | +1% | |
| Card NCO Rate (%) | 3.40 |
Q2 2025 was a tough comparable due to a $7.9B Visa gain in Q2 2024. Underlying YoY trends were stronger than headline numbers suggest.
Summary and Conclusions
- Q2 2026 Setup: JPM enters Q2 2026 with strong momentum across most businesses, but faces a high bar after a record Q1 (revenue +10% YoY, net income +13% YoY). Consensus expects a sequential revenue decline (-1% QoQ), reflecting normalization in Markets and seasonal expense moderation.
- Comparables: Q2 2025 was a tough comp due to the absence of a large Visa gain in Q2 2024. Underlying business trends were solid, but headline YoY growth was negative.
- Guidance: Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance for NII ex Markets (~$95B), total NII (~$103B), adjusted expense (~$105B), and Card NCO rate (~3.4%). Q1 run-rates are tracking in line with these targets, but Q1 expense was seasonally high.
- Key Focus Areas for Q2 2026:
- Markets Revenue: After a record Q1, consensus expects some normalization. Volatility, client activity, and balance sheet deployment are key swing factors.
- Expense Discipline: Q1 expense was elevated due to seasonality and strong Markets/Banking performance. Q2 should show moderation; ability to hold to the $105B full-year guide is a key investor focus.
- Card Credit Quality: Card NCO rate was 3.47% in Q1, slightly above the FY guide. Any upward drift or signs of consumer stress will be scrutinized.
- Deposit and Loan Growth: Q1 saw +7% YoY deposit growth and +11% loan growth, but management expects more modest growth for the rest of the year, especially in wholesale deposits and card loans.
- Investment Banking Fees: Q1 IB fees were up 28% YoY. The pipeline remains healthy, but geopolitical risks and deal timing could impact Q2 results.
- AWM Flows and Margins: AWM continues to deliver strong net inflows and high margins. Sustainability of flows and fee margins will be watched.
- Capital/Regulatory: CET1 ratio was 14.3% at Q1 end. Basel III endgame and G-SIB surcharge impacts remain a focus; management has flagged potential $20B higher capital needs by 2028 under current proposals.
Management Commentary and Intra-Quarter Color
- On Consumer Health: "The consumer remains resilient... all of the metrics that we look at continue to show that." (Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference, June 2026)
- On Deposit Growth: "Consumer deposit growth expectations [are] low to mid-single digits... we'll be a little bit more confident in that once we get through tax season." (Q1 2026 call)
- On Expense Guide: "The $105 billion is not a promise, it's an outcome of business results... If every quarter was as good as this quarter, we will spend more than $105 billion for a very good reason." (Q1 2026 call)
- On Markets/Trading: "Markets revenue reached a record $11.6 billion, while IB fees increased 28% due to stronger advisory and ECM activity." (Q1 2026 press release)
- On Regulatory Capital: "Our CET1 capital would increase around 4%... need to plan for 5.2% [G-SIB surcharge] in 2028, a 70 basis point increase from the current 4.5% requirement, which... results in a total increase of about $20 billion of G-SIB capital based on our current balance sheet." (Q1 2026 call)
What to Watch for in Q2 2026 Results
- Can JPM sustain above-trend Markets and IB revenue, or does it revert toward normalized levels?
- Will expense growth moderate as expected, keeping the company on track for the $105B full-year guide?
- Does Card NCO rate remain contained near 3.4%, or are there early signs of consumer credit deterioration?
- Are deposit and loan growth rates stabilizing at guided levels, or is there further upside/downside?
- Any updates on regulatory capital requirements, capital deployment, or management's stance on buybacks/dividends?
- AWM: Are net inflows and margins holding up after a strong Q1?
Conclusion
JPMorgan Chase heads into Q2 2026 earnings with strong underlying business momentum, but faces normalization pressures after a record Q1 and a tough YoY comp. The most important factors for the upcoming report are the sustainability of Markets and IB strength, expense discipline, credit quality in Card, and management's ability to deliver on its full-year guidance amid a dynamic macro and regulatory environment.
