Verizon ($VZ) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Earnings Date: July 21, 2026
Key Metrics to Watch — Q2 2026 Consensus vs. Prior Quarters
| Metric | Q2 2026E (Consensus) | Q1 2026A | Q2 2025A | QoQ Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 35,478 | 34,887 | 33,711 | +1.7% | +5.2% |
| EBITDA ($M) | 13,676 | 13,141 | 12,649 | +4.1% | +8.1% |
| Net Income ($M) | 5,278 | 5,074 | 5,017 | +4.0% | +5.2% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.26 | $1.19 | $1.17 | +5.9% | +7.7% |
| Operating Margin (%) * | |||||
| Wireless Retail Postpaid Phone Net Adds ('000) | 55 | -289 | |||
| Wireless Retail Postpaid Phone Churn (%) | 0.97 | 0.95 | |||
| Total Broadband Net Adds ('000) | 341 | 353 |
*Operating margin not directly disclosed in consensus or filings; can be calculated post-release.
Recent Guidance and Management Commentary (Q1 2026–Q4 2025)
| Period | Metric/Theme | Guidance/Commentary | Source Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | Adjusted EPS Growth | Raised to 5%–6% for FY26 (from 4%–5% previously) | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | Postpaid Phone Net Adds | Now expect upper half of 750,000–1,000,000 range for FY26 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | Mobility & Broadband Service Revenue | Reaffirmed 2%–3% growth for FY26; Q1 is expected to be the low point for the year | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | Free Cash Flow | Reaffirmed $21.5B+ for FY26, ~7%+ YoY growth | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | CapEx | $16.0B–$16.5B for FY26 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | Cost Transformation | On track for $5B OpEx savings in FY26; further cost reductions expected beyond 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | Frontier Integration | On track for $1B+ run-rate operating cost synergies by 2028 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Dividend | Annualized increase of $0.07/share (+2.5%), 20th consecutive year of increases | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Share Repurchase | $25B authorization over 3 years; at least $3B in 2026 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Fiber Passings | Targeting 40M–50M fiber passings medium term; at least 2M organic adds in 2026 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Wireless Service Revenue | Expect flat in FY26 as price increase headwinds (~180 bps) and promo amortization continue | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Mobility & Broadband Service Revenue | 2%–3% growth in FY26 (~$93B) | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Adjusted EPS | $4.90–$4.95 for FY26 (+4%–5% YoY) | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Q4 2025 | Free Cash Flow | $21.5B+ for FY26 | Jan 30, 2026 |
What to Expect This Quarter
- Revenue Growth: Consensus expects Q2 2026 revenue of $35.5B (+5.2% YoY, +1.7% QoQ), reflecting the full-quarter inclusion of Frontier, continued broadband expansion, and improving wireless net adds.
- EBITDA and Margins: Consensus EBITDA is $13.7B (+8.1% YoY), with management signaling that adjusted EBITDA growth should outpace EPS growth due to cost transformation and synergy realization from Frontier.
- EPS: Consensus GAAP EPS is $1.26 (+7.7% YoY), with management having raised full-year adjusted EPS growth guidance to 5%–6%.
- Wireless KPIs: Investors will focus on postpaid phone net adds (Q1: +55k, first positive Q1 in 13 years), churn (Q1: 0.97%, improved sequentially), and ARPA trends (Q1: $166.66, down due to one-time outage credits).
- Broadband KPIs: Broadband net adds (Q1: +341k), with fiber and FWA both contributing. Management expects broadband momentum to accelerate through the year as integration and cross-sell opportunities ramp.
- Cost Savings: Execution on the $5B OpEx savings target for FY26 is a key watch item, with Q1 showing tangible progress in advertising, workforce, and network costs.
- Capital Returns: The new $25B buyback program is underway, with $2.5B repurchased in Q1; dividend growth continues.
Key Themes Investors Are Watching
- Sustainability of Wireless Net Add Momentum: Can Verizon maintain or accelerate positive postpaid phone net adds after a strong Q1, especially as competitive intensity remains high?
- Churn and Customer Economics: Will churn improvements persist, and how much of net add growth is driven by lower churn versus gross adds? Is the shift away from heavy promotions sustainable?
- Frontier Integration and Synergies: Progress on realizing $1B+ in run-rate synergies by 2028, and the impact of Frontier’s fiber footprint on overall broadband and convergence growth.
- ARPA/ARPU Trends: After Q1’s ARPA dip (due to outage credits), will ARPA stabilize or grow as promotional amortization headwinds fade and more customers take premium plans/perks?
- Cost Transformation: Visibility into further OpEx and CapEx efficiencies, especially as management targets additional cost reductions beyond 2026.
- Capital Allocation: Pace and scale of share repurchases, leverage trajectory (targeting 2.0–2.25x by 2027), and ongoing commitment to the dividend.
Catalysts and Risks Into the Print
Catalysts
- Continued improvement in postpaid phone net adds and churn.
- Acceleration in broadband net adds as Frontier integration deepens.
- Evidence of cost savings dropping to the bottom line, supporting margin and EPS growth.
- Positive updates on AI-driven operational efficiency and customer experience initiatives.
- Additional buyback activity and capital returns.
Risks
- Competitive pressures leading to higher promotional intensity, potentially impacting margins or net adds.
- Slower-than-expected realization of Frontier synergies or integration challenges.
- Macro headwinds affecting consumer or business spending.
- Further ARPA/ARPU pressure if promotional amortization or pricing headwinds persist longer than expected.
- Regulatory or legal developments, including ongoing litigation and environmental matters.
Setup and Positioning Summary
Verizon enters Q2 2026 earnings with positive momentum following a strong Q1 marked by the first positive Q1 postpaid phone net adds in over a decade, sequential churn improvement, and robust free cash flow. Management has raised full-year adjusted EPS growth guidance and now expects postpaid phone net adds to reach the upper half of its 750,000–1,000,000 target range. The integration of Frontier is progressing, with synergy realization and broadband expansion in focus. Investors are watching for sustained improvement in wireless and broadband KPIs, continued cost discipline, and execution on capital returns. The setup is constructive, but expectations are elevated given recent outperformance and the step-up in guidance. Delivery on volume growth, margin expansion, and capital allocation will be critical to sustaining positive sentiment into the print.
