Wells Fargo (WFC) Earnings Preview — Q2 2026
Key Points: What to Watch for in Q2 2026
| Factor | Why It Matters / What to Watch |
|---|
| Net Interest Income (NII) | Guidance is $50B ± for FY26; Q1 NII was $12.1B. Watch for sequential growth, margin compression, and mix shift. |
| Loan Growth | Q1 loans +11% YoY; guidance is mid-single digits avg loan growth FY25–FY26. Monitor for continued momentum. |
| Deposit Growth & Mix | Q1 deposits +7% YoY; interest-bearing deposits growing faster. Watch for mix shift and impact on NIM/NII. |
| Noninterest Income | Q1 +8% YoY; fee lines (investment advisory, card, trading, IB) are key. Track for continued broad-based growth. |
| Expense Discipline | FY26 expense guide $55.7B; Q1 up 3% YoY. Watch for revenue-related comp, tech spend, and efficiency progress. |
| Credit Quality | Q1 net charge-offs stable at 0.45%; watch for any signs of stress, especially in C&I and consumer portfolios. |
| ROTCE Progress | Medium-term target 17–18%; Q1 at 14.5%. Monitor for improvement and management commentary on path/timing. |
| Capital/Buybacks | CET1 at 10.3% (target 10–10.5%); $4B buybacks in Q1. Watch for capital deployment and regulatory updates. |
| Segment Trends | Card and auto lending, Wealth flows, Commercial Banking new client wins, Markets/IB share gains. |
Q2 2026 Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Consensus Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 Actual | YoY Change |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $21,776 | $20,822 | +4.6% |
| Net Income ($M) | $5,226 | $4,894 | +6.8% |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.69 | $1.39 | +21.6% |
| Gross Profit Margin (%) | 24.4 | 26.7 | -2.3 ppt |
Q2 2025 Actuals (Restated Where Applicable)
| Metric | Q2 2025 Actual |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $20,822 |
| Net Income ($M) | $4,894 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.39 |
| NII ($M) | $11,495 |
| Noninterest Income ($M) | $8,654 |
| Noninterest Expense ($M) | $13,891 |
| Net Charge-Offs ($M) | $1,009 |
| ROTCE (%) | 13.6 |
| CET1 (%) | 11.1 |
Q1 2026 Actuals (Most Recent Reported Quarter)
| Metric | Q1 2026 Actual |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $21,446 |
| Net Income ($M) | $5,253 |
| Diluted EPS | $1.60 |
| NII ($M) | $12,096 |
| Noninterest Income ($M) | $9,350 |
| Noninterest Expense ($M) | $14,330 |
| Net Charge-Offs ($M) | $1,100 |
| ROTCE (%) | 14.5 |
| CET1 (%) | 10.3 |
FY 2026 Consensus (for Context)
| Metric | FY26 Consensus |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $87,799 |
| Net Income ($M) | $21,617 |
| EPS (GAAP) | $6.98 |
Summary and Conclusions
Wells Fargo enters Q2 2026 with strong momentum across most business lines, coming off a robust Q1 and a solid FY25. The company is lapping a relatively easy comparable from Q2 2025, when revenue grew just 1% YoY and NII was pressured by asset cap constraints and deposit mix.
Most Important Factors for Q2 2026
- Net Interest Income (NII): Management reaffirmed FY26 NII guidance of ~$50B, with Q1 tracking in line. Sequential NII growth is expected, but margin compression is likely due to a higher mix of interest-bearing commercial deposits and growth in lower-margin markets assets. Watch for any update to the full-year NII outlook, especially if loan growth or deposit mix trends diverge from plan.
- Loan Growth: Q1 2026 saw loans up 11% YoY (+4% QoQ), well above the mid-single-digit annual growth assumed in guidance. Management has flagged that if demand remains strong, loan growth could exceed expectations. Key drivers are C&I, card, and auto. Mortgage balances are still declining but at a slower rate.
- Deposit Growth and Mix: Deposits grew 7% YoY in Q1, with interest-bearing deposits leading. The mix shift is dilutive to NIM but supports broader client relationships and fee income. Noninterest-bearing deposit growth is expected to be gradual as checking account initiatives ramp.
- Noninterest Income: Q1 noninterest income rose 8% YoY, led by investment advisory fees, card fees, and investment banking. Markets revenue was up 19%. Fee lines are sensitive to market conditions, but management expects continued broad-based growth.
- Expense Discipline: FY26 expense guidance is $55.7B, unchanged after Q1. Q1 expenses were up 3% YoY, mainly due to revenue-related comp in Wealth and Investment Management. Efficiency initiatives are ongoing, with headcount down 23 consecutive quarters. Watch for any update to expense guidance, especially if revenue-related comp or tech investments accelerate.
- Credit Quality: Net charge-offs remain stable at 0.45% of loans. No systemic deterioration is evident; credit performance in card and auto is better than modeled. Management continues to monitor for any signs of stress, particularly given macro/geopolitical uncertainty.
- ROTCE Progress: The medium-term target is 17–18%; Q1 was 14.5%. Management remains confident in the path, citing multiple drivers (card, auto, wealth, commercial banking, markets). Any commentary on timing or milestones will be closely watched.
- Capital and Buybacks: CET1 is at 10.3%, within the 10–10.5% target. $4B of buybacks in Q1. Basel III endgame proposals could reduce RWAs by ~7%, potentially freeing up more excess capital. Management has signaled willingness to revisit the CET1 target once rules are finalized.
- Segment Trends:
- Consumer: Card and auto lending are key growth engines; card vintages from 2022–2024 are now profitable.
- Wealth: Flows, recruiting, and asset growth are strong; Premier initiative gaining traction.
- Commercial: New client acquisition and banker hiring are driving loan/deposit growth.
- Markets/IB: Share gains continue; markets revenue up double digits YoY.
How Did They Report Last Year? Are They Coming Off a Tough Comparable?
- Q2 2025 was a relatively soft quarter: Revenue grew just 1% YoY, NII was down 2% YoY, and ROTCE was 13.6%. The asset cap was only lifted late in Q2, so Q2 2026 is the first clean year-over-year comparison without that constraint.
- Q2 2026 faces an easier comp: With strong Q1 2026 growth and easier prior-year comparisons, expectations are for solid YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS.
Segment Performance — Q2 2025 vs. Q1 2026
| Segment | Q2 2025 Revenue ($M) | Q1 2026 Revenue ($M) | YoY Change* |
|---|
| Consumer Banking & Lending | $9,228 | $9,998 | +8.3% |
| Commercial Banking | $2,933 | $3,120 | +6.4% |
| Corporate & Inv. Banking | $4,673 | $5,278 | +12.9% |
| Wealth & Inv. Mgmt | $3,898 | $3,875 | -0.6% |
*YoY change is Q1 2026 vs. Q2 2025 for illustration; actual Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025 will depend on reported results.
Management Commentary — Recent Tone
- On NII: "We are maintaining our guidance of $50 billion, plus or minus, of net interest income this year... we expect net interest income to grow over the course of the year."
- On Loan Growth: "Average loans grew 4% in the first quarter from the beginning of the year. And if demand remains strong, average loan growth could be higher than mid-single digits..."
- On Expenses: "Our guidance is unchanged, and we still expect 2026 noninterest expense to be approximately $55.7 billion."
- On ROTCE: "We feel as confident as ever in [the 17–18% target]. There is absolutely nothing that has changed."
- On Credit: "Credit performance remained strong, and our net charge-off ratio was stable from a year ago at 45 basis points."
- On Capital: "CET1 ratio of 10.3%, within our stated 10% to 10.5% target range and well above our CET1 regulatory minimum plus buffers of 8.5%."
Conclusion
Wells Fargo is set up for a strong Q2 2026 print, with easier comps, robust loan and deposit growth, and broad-based revenue momentum. The most important factors to watch are NII trajectory, loan/deposit growth, expense discipline, and ROTCE progress. Management's tone remains confident, and the company is executing well on its post-asset-cap growth strategy.
Key risks: NIM compression from deposit mix, macro/geopolitical shocks impacting credit or fee lines, and any unexpected expense inflation.
Catalysts: Q2 results, any update to NII/expense guidance, ROTCE progress, and regulatory clarity on capital rules.
