JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Q3 2026 Earnings Preview
Key Takeaways
- Consensus expects Q3 2026 revenue of $50,847M and EPS of $5.86.
- Guidance was raised after Q2: FY2026 NII ex Markets to ~$96.5B, total NII to ~$105.5B, adjusted expense to ~$107.5B, Card NCO rate to ~3.2%.
- Q2 2026 was a record quarter for revenue and profitability, driven by exceptionally strong Markets and Investment Banking activity.
- Year-over-year comparables are tough: Q3 2025 revenue was $47,120M, net income $14,393M, EPS $5.07, with strong capital markets performance.
- Most important factors to watch: sustainability of capital markets outperformance, deposit and loan growth trends, expense discipline, credit quality, and management’s tone on macro/AI/capital deployment.
Table 1: Forward Consensus vs. Guidance — Q3 & FY2026
| Metric | Q3 2026 Consensus | FY2026 Consensus | FY2026 Guidance (as of Q2) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 50,847 | 208,244 | Consensus is for managed revenue | |
| Net Income ($M) | 15,739 | 65,101 | ||
| EPS (GAAP) | 5.86 | 25.30 | ||
| NII ex Markets ($B) | ~$96.5B | Raised from $95B after Q2 | ||
| Total NII ($B) | ~$105.5B | Raised from $103B after Q2 | ||
| Adjusted Expense ($B) | ~$107.5B | Raised from $105B after Q2 | ||
| Card NCO Rate (%) | ~3.2% | Lowered from 3.4% after Q2 |
Consensus figures rounded to millions; guidance as per Q2 2026 earnings call and slides.
Table 2: Actual Results — Recent Quarters
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Net Income ($M) | EPS (GAAP) | NII ex Markets ($B) | Total NII ($B) | Adjusted Expense ($B) | Card NCO Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 58,022 | 16,900* | 6.14* | 23.7 | 25.6 | 27.3 | 3.34 |
| Q1 2026 | 50,536 | 16,494 | 5.94 | 23.3 | 25.5 | 26.9 | 3.47 |
| Q4 2025 | 46,767 | 13,025 | 4.63 | 23.9 | 25.1 | 24.0 | 3.14 |
| Q3 2025 | 47,120 | 14,393 | 5.07 | 23.4 | 24.1 | 24.3 | 3.15 |
Q2 2026 net income/EPS exclude significant items (Visa/equity gains); reported net income was $21,155M, EPS $7.70.
Table 3: Year-over-Year Comparable — Q3 2025
| Metric | Q3 2025 Actual |
|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 47,120 |
| Net Income ($M) | 14,393 |
| EPS (GAAP) | 5.07 |
| NII ex Markets ($B) | 23.4 |
| Total NII ($B) | 24.1 |
| Adjusted Expense ($B) | 24.3 |
| Card NCO Rate (%) | 3.15 |
What to Watch for in Q3 2026
1. Capital Markets Sustainability
- Q2 2026 saw record Markets revenue ($12.1B, +35% YoY) and IB fees (+30% YoY).
- Management flagged some pull-forward of activity and exceptional events (large IPOs, index rebalancing, Asia/Korea equity market dynamics).
- Key question: Can Markets and IB sustain this level, or will there be normalization?
2. Deposit and Loan Growth
- Q2 2026: Average deposits up 7% YoY, 3% QoQ; average loans up 10% YoY, 2% QoQ.
- CCB average deposits up 3% YoY, 2% QoQ; net new checking account growth robust.
- Wholesale deposit growth outperformed expectations in H1; watch for continued strength or signs of slowing.
3. Expense Discipline
- FY2026 adjusted expense guidance raised to ~$107.5B (from $105B), mainly due to higher volume/revenue-related costs.
- Q2 2026 expense up 15% YoY, driven by comp, front office hiring, tech, marketing.
- Investors will focus on whether expense growth is leveraged to revenue and if further upward revisions are needed.
4. Credit Quality
- Card NCO rate guidance lowered to ~3.2% for FY2026 (was 3.4%).
- Q2 2026 Card NCO rate: 3.34%; delinquencies lower than expected.
- Management continues to highlight benign credit environment but notes vigilance for normalization or deterioration.
5. Macro/AI/Capital Deployment Commentary
- Management remains “cautiously optimistic” but flags risks: geopolitics, inflation, asset prices, fiscal deficits.
- AI investments and efficiency: JPM sees real productivity gains, but expects most benefits to accrue to customers over time.
- Capital deployment: Large excess capital ($40B+), preference for organic growth, selective buybacks, open to M&A if value-accretive.
Summary and Conclusions
- JPM enters Q3 2026 coming off record results, with consensus expecting a modest sequential step-down but still very strong performance.
- Year-over-year comparables are tough, especially in Markets and IB, but management has guided to higher NII and expense, and lower card NCOs.
- Key investor focus will be on the durability of capital markets outperformance, deposit/loan growth, expense leverage, and any early signs of credit normalization.
- Management’s tone on macro, AI, and capital deployment will be closely watched for signals on risk appetite and future returns.
- Any deviation from the upgraded guidance, especially on NII, expenses, or credit, will be scrutinized.
In summary: JPMorgan Chase faces a high bar for Q3 2026 given record recent results and upgraded guidance. The most important factors for the upcoming report are the sustainability of capital markets strength, ongoing deposit and loan growth, expense control, and credit quality. Investors should also watch for management’s commentary on macro risks, AI-driven change, and capital allocation strategy.
